'04 Girls FBR Rankings - 04-17-13

Not to be hypercritical, but I do notice that one singular win in TGPL or SDL-P (combined with a losing record) seems to equate points-wise to 10 wins in any other league....or do they get base points for just being in that particular league?

No doubt that mid-level team in one of the "elite" leagues would most likely beat a team with a winning record in D2/PSA/DIAL/etc.....but....using promotion/relegation as an example, although a team may be in D1, that doesn't mean a top D2 team isn't better. In academy, just signing up for the league does not make them good (like Andro in SDL - absolutely nothing against the team, but they are out of their league - how many 12-0 games can 9yr old girls stomach? ).
The rankings just seems too weighted toward the league IMHO.

Just a bit of constructive criticism. With a hundred teams out there, then add to that the ones NOT named Liverpool, that's a huge amount of teams to keep track of. These rankings are a valuable service, and although I have some reservations about the macro-level accuracy, on the high level, they do a fine job of seperating the elite and good competitive teams from the low-level or rec+ teams. Thanks for putting this together BW!

I wonder if we manage an upset against DTS this weekend...where would that bump us up to? Can't wait...

10sDad wrote:Not to be hypercritical, but I do notice that one singular win in TGPL or SDL-P (combined with a losing record) seems to equate points-wise to 10 wins in any other league....or do they get base points for just being in that particular league?

No doubt that mid-level team in one of the "elite" leagues would most likely beat a team with a winning record in D2/PSA/DIAL/etc.....but....using promotion/relegation as an example, although a team may be in D1, that doesn't mean a top D2 team isn't better. In academy, just signing up for the league does not make them good (like Andro in SDL - absolutely nothing against the team, but they are out of their league - how many 12-0 games can 9yr old girls stomach? ).
The rankings just seems too weighted toward the league IMHO.

Just a bit of constructive criticism. With a hundred teams out there, then add to that the ones NOT named Liverpool, that's a huge amount of teams to keep track of. These rankings are a valuable service, and although I have some reservations about the macro-level accuracy, on the high level, they do a fine job of seperating the elite and good competitive teams from the low-level or rec+ teams. Thanks for putting this together BW!

The system that I use for assigning weighting factors to opponents is described in detail here: http://www.ntxsoccer.net/rankings.aspx

In theory and in practice, it is based solely on game results, and looking at which teams regularly beat which teams, and is completely independent of league/division assignment. Now, the reality is, that teams generally seek out and get assigned to leagues/division with similar strength teams, so especially when it comes to the top divisions of the top leagues (TGPL, SDL Platinum, SDL D1, PTCL G, etc...) it may appear that the ranking tiers are somehow aligned with the leagues, but that is not the case.

Having been doing FBR for 3+ years now and across 5 different age groups, I have plenty of historical data that shows that FBR generally does a pretty good job with relative placement of teams with "bad" W/L records playing in "strong" leagues, against teams teams with "good" W/L records playing in "weak" leagues.

Part of this is due to the weighted ranking tier system in FBR, and part of it is due to the Margin of Victory (MoV) factor used in the calculation. My experience is that team with a poor W/L record that is COMPETITIVE in their results (i.e. loses a lot of games by 1-2-3 goal margins) will be pretty accurately ranked.

Where the system does break down a little bit, is when a team has a poor W/L record, but is NOT competitive (i.e. many 5+ goal losses). The reality is, that when teams get up by 4-5 goals, the coach and/or the players themselves, tend to pull their foot off the gas. The team may end up losing 5 or 6 to 0, but really, if the opponent had played all game as if the score was still in doubt, the result probably should have been 8 or 9 to 0.

Applying this specifically to this week's '04 FBR... My experience tells me that teams like Juventus Black, DT North I Rosales, and Sting Searls, are probably ranked pretty accurately right now. Within +/- 2 or 3 spots of where they should be. However, my gut tells me that FBR may have Solar Chelsea Armstrong over-ranked a bit. There are getting the SoS benefit of playing against some very strong teams in SDL Plat, but have had multiple blowout losses. As stated above, blowout wins/losses tend to be a less accurate indication of relative strength of teams, than close wins/loses.

I appreciate you adding the explanation of how you do these rankings. It seems perfectly reasoned to me. So many people/organizations keep their systems a secret and it's nice to see you put it out there.

Thanks BWG for all the....ahem.... hard work you do. I mean how else would all us serfs find out where our DD's teams are ranked.... below Liverpool or below Liverpool all kidding aside we do appreciate what you do even the sarcasim. Thanks BW.

I don't always look at the fbr (yes I do) but when i do... I prefer BW's fbr. Stay ranked my friends.

There is only one flaw in BW's rankings...but it's more personal than technical LOL...

Does anyone have anything constructive to add, or is this turning into a roast!

Somebody has to complain about position and incorporate some criticism...then you'll see fireworks.

Thanks for putting this together. I notice our team's PTCL win on Sunday didn't get counted. Where do you get the scores?

Whittyj wrote:Thanks for putting this together. I notice our team's PTCL win on Sunday didn't get counted. Where do you get the scores?

I get them from the Primetime web site. What score did I miss? Post or send me a PM.

Triumph 04 - 5
Sting 04 Skaife - 2

No to nit-pick, but FCD 04G West is 4-2. We have only lost 2 this year.

GSSC Thunder 04 Blue 1
American Eagles White 03 Duren 0
Sunday 4/14 PTCL

Whittyj wrote:GSSC Thunder 04 Blue 1
American Eagles White 03 Duren 0
Sunday 4/14 PTCL

Games for '04's playing up against '03's aren't included in the '04 FBR. Too difficult to determine an accurate SoS for the '03 teams vs. the '04's.

Does it change the W-L record? Because I think you have counted others.

Whittyj wrote:Does it change the W-L record? Because I think you have counted others.

Don't make gophers angry, you wouldn't like him when he's angry (not quite the hulk but it is green)

Man our dreams of moving up in the bw rankings went down the drain everytime they (dts) hit the back of the net (4 times)...but overall I think we played a good game and yall give their parents a bad rep...but their team is everything I expected....good!! Proud Texan...

RASE... Now that I have everyone's attention how is it that Dalglish and Barnes don't play each other in TGPL this year. I'm thinking conspiracy theory.

Maybe the same reason that the two FC Dallas teams don't play each other - SAME CLUB. How hard is this?

by deepblack Today at 2:43 pm
Whittyj wrote:
“
Does it change the W-L record? Because I think you have counted others.
”

Don't make gophers angry, you wouldn't like him when he's angry (not quite the hulk but it is green)

I actually was talking about some of our losses in 03 being counted. Don't know about other teams...

Lobo_Momma wrote:Maybe the same reason that the two FC Dallas teams don't play each other - SAME CLUB. How hard is this?

If that were true half of the game would be cancelled just due to LP

Whittyj wrote:by deepblack Today at 2:43 pm
Whittyj wrote:
“
Does it change the W-L record? Because I think you have counted others.
”

Don't make gophers angry, you wouldn't like him when he's angry (not quite the hulk but it is green)

I actually was talking about some of our losses in 03 being counted. Don't know about other teams...

None of GSSC Blue's games against '03's have been counted in the '04 FBR. The only PTCL game for GSSC Blue that has been added to the '04 FBR is the 0-4 loss to DT South '04 from 3/9/13. Since that game was between two '04 teams, it is included.