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Signing day is over
Signing day is over
What teams are the big winners and the biggest losers?
ticomedia- TxSoccer Lurker
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Join date : 2013-01-05
Re: Signing day is over
ticomedia wrote:Any big news coming from the trenches?
What teams are the big winners and the biggest losers?
I don't have any news from the trenches, but Barca's 03 Winners/Losers post last week at https://www.txsoccer.net/t21455-03-winners-losers prompted me to do some research about how the 10 D1 teams finished U11 vs how they finished U12. In other words, let math, history and last year's U11 final standings help us predict how the D1 teams will finish the U12 season.
There have been 4 years (before the '03s) where LHGCL used the 20 team super group. Looking at the difference in standing position from U11 to U12 for those 40 teams (the top 10 or D1 each year) what we see is:
8 teams finished in the same place for U11 and U12
15 teams went up one or down one place
9 teams went up two or down two places
That means 32 of the 40 teams didn't move more than 2 places. So big jumps and big falls are relatively rare (20% of the teams move significantly).
Of the 8 teams that had a significant move (+ or - 3 places or more) we have:
3 teams went up or down 3 places
3 teams went up or down 4 places
2 teams went up or down 6 places
Of these 8 teams:
5 of them went down in the standings.
Both teams that moved 6 places went down in the standings.
So it seems like big drops are easier to do than large gains.
For the '02s only one team moved significantly: Solar Gio dropped 6 places
For the '01s only one team moved significantly: Solar Chelsea dropped 3 places
The '00s had the most volatility: 2 teams down 4 places, 1 team up 3 and 1 up 4
The '99s had 1 team drop 6 places and 1 team go up 3 while 4 finished the same
I think this shows us that even if a team or two drop significantly, the teams that were below them only go up a spot or two and fill in the missing spaces.
Over all, it seems like the more things change, the more they stay the same.
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