Statistical Rankings

05 North Texas Soccer Rankings
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AvCcWaU-Tr54dEVhMWVGZjBRQlJmdDNxczVreVhBQlE&output=html


UPDATES:
3/13/12: Added AFC Adidas Fall Challenge 2011 Tournament
3/26/12: Added some missing teams in the game entry form for the SDL and PSA leagues.
3/29/12: 44 games added and new calculations performed.
4/22/12: 29 games added and new calculations performed.
5/1/12: 32 games added and new calculations performed. Added 2 teams and combined 2 teams.
5/10/12: 24 games added (PT Summer Tournament and some stragglers). New calculations performed.
6/5/12: 15 games added (end of season tournament). New calculations performed.

looks like Your missing some teams on this rankings list.

Fc Xtreme
Dt north deleon
Infinity Fc

And probably a few more

soccer.stats.05 wrote:05 North Texas Soccer Rankings

http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AvCcWaU-Tr54dEVhMWVGZjBRQlJmdDNxczVreVhBQlE&output=html



UPDATES
3/13/12: Added AFC Adidas Fall Challenge 2011 Tournament

Interesting...
How did you come up with the strength of schedule? Especially for teams that are not playing in an 05 division this Spring.

And teams completely left off??

DT77dad-
Thanks. I'll add those teams to the drop down list.

Noticed that one team played SDL 04 last season; these calculations will not include 04 teams/games.
These numbers are only for the 05 leagues/tournaments. The other two teams did not play in 05 league in the Fall? Did not see them in the tournament games either. So that is why they were not listed. However, I see all teams are in SDL 05 for Spring. Unfortunately, I can't grab the SDL scores from a web site; so they need to be reported through the 05 - Game Score Entry form. Those newly added team will be reflected after a few games scores are submitted.


Distributor-
Strength of schedule is the average of the opposing teams rating. You need a recursive algorithm to determine the strength of schedule which is the secret sauce for the calculations.

As for 05 teams not playing in an 05 division this Spring (e.g. they are playing 04), those teams will not have any more leagues games included in their calculations. Their rating will stay pretty stagnant but may move up/down slightly because of the how other teams did which impacts their strength of schedule. These team not playing in the 05 leagues may still get games reported for them if they play in 05 tournaments. This may apply to some end of season tournaments.


Androfan-
For teams that were left off, just means I did not have game scores for them. Once I get 05 games scores for new teams, I add the new teams to the list. I am going to ahead and make sure all the Spring 05 SDL teams are included in the new game form. That should cover all the teams in the leagues I am aware of.

Thank you for doing this

When do the newly Submitted games move to confirmed games?

Also LP Mcdermott is now Sting 05 Hanlon

I just submitted your PTCL West scores... EXCEPT Polaris Black I wasn't sure if it was just Polaris or Polaris '06 for your dropdown


Polaris Black 1 LFCA Heighway 8

FYI: Just added in 44 new games for the past few weeks and did new calculations. See results in first post of this thread.

FriscoSoccer05: I moved all the new games to confirmed games today. For now, I will batch up 2 weeks of games results at a time. Let's see if that frequency works out. Thanks for the note of "LP Mcdermott is now Sting 05 Hanlon". Will make required corrections.

ShelleyFRN: Thanks for the note. I fixed the form to show Polaris Black.

soccer.stats.05 wrote:FYI: Just added in 44 new games for the past few weeks and did new calculations. See results in first post of this thread.

FriscoSoccer05: I moved all the new games to confirmed games today. For now, I will batch up 2 weeks of games results at a time. Let's see if that frequency works out. Thanks for the note of "LP Mcdermott is now Sting 05 Hanlon". Will make required corrections.

ShelleyFRN: Thanks for the note. I fixed the form to show Polaris Black.

I think we may be missing one or two teams yet. But can't figure out who. Will study it some more

looks accurate

FriscoSoccer05 wrote:Also LP Mcdermott is now Sting 05 Hanlon

I know the coach went to Sting, but I don't believe she took the entire team. From what I heard it was maybe 2-3 players.

Just submitted the 04/01 for PTCL games..

One issue. Your score dropdown only goes to 15. GSSC Thunder Black scored 16.

SS05...thanks again for putting this together.
What is the highest strength of schedule a team can achieve?

With most of the top 05 teams playing in EAL, they're all likely going to stay pretty high. Is it reasonable to think that it will be increasingly more difficult for those teams not playing in EAL (Gold) to crack into the top 10? May put more emphasis on tourney performance, right?

ShelleyFRN: The score drop-down list goes up to 20 now (up from 15).

Distributor: As for the highest strength of schedule for a team question, I supposed if a team only played the #1 team over-and-over (never playing anyone else) that would be the highest strength of schedule you could achieve. If you are talking about a specific number itself, that is not known because the strength of schedule is dynamic and based on other games and goal differentials. In theory, the actual number itself for strength of schedule itself is almost meaningless. The value of the strength of schedule is the relativity related to other teams strength of schedule. So strength of schedule 995 and 993 (difference of 2)....is basically the same as strength of schedule 526 and 524 (difference of 2).

As for cracking the top 10 and the EAL teams continually playing each other so their strength of schedule stays relatively high (think I see where you are going with this), the non-EAL team can easily get into the top 10 by increasing their goal differential. So if a team plays a weaker team you should score more that will propel you higher in the ratings....if you play a harder team you don't score as much. Over time, the numbers stabilize to fairly accurate reflection of what is happening with the teams. You are correct in that when the tournaments happen, that is where the rankings get better. The formula can start using more data points for teams playing across different leagues. If we only had league info and no tournament games, the numbers would be poor because couldn't compare teams very easily.


BTW will do updates to calculations after the games this weekend.

Updated the 05 rating calculations using games through 4/22. Missing a few games from this weekend including the SDL games. If/when they come in I will incorporate into the numbers.

Thank you for your hard work in putting this together.

Are you including DIAL league?

Solar Red 05 5
Liverpool 05 3

New calculations performed. See first post from this thread for the URL link.

Yes, DIAL games are included. Most SDL games from the last 2 weeks are missing. Couple of missing games from primetime.

This may be the last statistical update for the 2011-12 year. I noticed there are only small changes in the rankings (e.g. two teams swap a spots) when new games are added. Hitting diminishing returns.

The end of year tournaments will show you where you really stack up within the 05 group. If you think the statistical rankings numbers are not a good reflection of your team (yes, this is a flawed statistical system)....show your stuff in these May tournaments. Nothing better than an underdog team beating the favorite.


BTW: These rankings are just a barometer for when teams play each other or they could be helpful in defining tournament brackets to get competitive games. These girls are 7. If they have a sleepover it impacts their game performance. They can tell you the team cheer but not the score of the game.

OK for fun I took the scores from this weekend and compared them to SoccerStat05's projections based on his system...
Soccer.Stat.05 pts per latest results:
DT Moreno 7.789
LP Hyypia 9.527
GSSC Thunder 3.934
Saints Athletic -0.136

Solar Red 05 8.732
Sting West 7.081
FWFC 05G White 1.523
DT Torres 1.570

The Match-ups:
DT Moreno 7.789 vs GSSC Thunder 3.934 - PROJECTED DT MORENO by 3-4 Goals (Actual - DT Won by 5)
LP Hyypia 9.527 vs Saints Athletic -0.136 - PROJECTED HYYPIA by 10 Goals (Actual - LP Won by 11)
Saints Athletic -0.136 vs DT Moreno 7.789 - PROJECTED DT MORENO by 8 Goals (Actual - DT Won by 10)
GSSC Thunder 3.934 vs LP Hyypia 9.527 - PROJECTED HYYPIA by 5-6 goals (Actual - LP Won by 10)
DT Moreno 7.789 vs LP Hyypia 9.527 - HYYPIA by 2-3 Goals (Actual - LP won by 7)
Saints Athletic -0.136 vs GSSC Thunder 3.934 - GSSC Thunder by 4 goals (Actual - Tie)

Solar Red 05 8.732 vs DT Torres 1.570 - PROJECTED SOLAR RED by 7 goals (Actual - Solar won by 4)
Sting West 7.081 vs FWFC 05G White 1.523 - PROJECTED STING WEST 5-6 Goals (Actual - Sting won by 5)
FWFC 05G White 1.523 vs Solar Red 05 8.732 - PROJECTED Solar Red 7 Goals (Actual - Solar won by 10)
DT Torres 1.570 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED Sting West 5-6 goals (Actual - Sting won by 7)
Solar Red 05 8.732 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED Solar Red 1-2 goals (Actual - Solar won by 3 goals)
FWFC 05G White 1.523 vs DT Torres 1.570 - PROJECTED TIE (Actual DT Torres won by 4)

CHAMPIONSHIP BRACKET
POOL A 1st Place - LP Hyypia 9.527 vs POOL B 2nd Place - Sting West 7.081 Projected SEMI-WINNER: HYYPIA by 2-3 goals (Actual Hyypia by 1 goal)

POOL B 1st Place - Solar Red 05 8.732 vs POOL A 2nd Place - DT Moreno 7.789 Projected SEMI-WINNER: SOLAR RED by 1 goal (Actual SOLAR by 2 goals)

CHAMPIONSHIP:
LP Hyypia 9.527 vs Solar Red 05 8.732 - PROJECTED: HYYPIA by 1 (Actual Hyypia by 3)
3rd Place Game:
DT Moreno 7.789 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED: DT MORENO by 1 (Actual Sting West by 1 (PK))

So SoccerStat05 system got all but one game, a 3rd place final where it went to PKs

Interesting and good job SS05

FriscoSoccer05 wrote:OK for fun I took the scores from this weekend and compared them to SoccerStat05's projections based on his system...
Soccer.Stat.05 pts per latest results:
DT Moreno 7.789
LP Hyypia 9.527
GSSC Thunder 3.934
Saints Athletic -0.136

Solar Red 05 8.732
Sting West 7.081
FWFC 05G White 1.523
DT Torres 1.570

The Match-ups:
DT Moreno 7.789 vs GSSC Thunder 3.934 - PROJECTED DT MORENO by 3-4 Goals (Actual - DT Won by 5)
LP Hyypia 9.527 vs Saints Athletic -0.136 - PROJECTED HYYPIA by 10 Goals (Actual - LP Won by 11)
Saints Athletic -0.136 vs DT Moreno 7.789 - PROJECTED DT MORENO by 8 Goals (Actual - DT Won by 10)
GSSC Thunder 3.934 vs LP Hyypia 9.527 - PROJECTED HYYPIA by 5-6 goals (Actual - LP Won by 10)
DT Moreno 7.789 vs LP Hyypia 9.527 - HYYPIA by 2-3 Goals (Actual - LP won by 7)
Saints Athletic -0.136 vs GSSC Thunder 3.934 - GSSC Thunder by 4 goals (Actual - Tie)

Solar Red 05 8.732 vs DT Torres 1.570 - PROJECTED SOLAR RED by 7 goals (Actual - Solar won by 4)
Sting West 7.081 vs FWFC 05G White 1.523 - PROJECTED STING WEST 5-6 Goals (Actual - Sting won by 5)
FWFC 05G White 1.523 vs Solar Red 05 8.732 - PROJECTED Solar Red 7 Goals (Actual - Solar won by 10)
DT Torres 1.570 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED Sting West 5-6 goals (Actual - Sting won by 7)
Solar Red 05 8.732 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED Solar Red 1-2 goals (Actual - Solar won by 3 goals)
FWFC 05G White 1.523 vs DT Torres 1.570 - PROJECTED TIE (Actual DT Torres won by 4)

CHAMPIONSHIP BRACKET
POOL A 1st Place - LP Hyypia 9.527 vs POOL B 2nd Place - Sting West 7.081 Projected SEMI-WINNER: HYYPIA by 2-3 goals (Actual Hyypia by 1 goal)

POOL B 1st Place - Solar Red 05 8.732 vs POOL A 2nd Place - DT Moreno 7.789 Projected SEMI-WINNER: SOLAR RED by 1 goal (Actual SOLAR by 2 goals)

CHAMPIONSHIP:
LP Hyypia 9.527 vs Solar Red 05 8.732 - PROJECTED: HYYPIA by 1 (Actual Hyypia by 3)
3rd Place Game:
DT Moreno 7.789 vs Sting West 7.081 - PROJECTED: DT MORENO by 1 (Actual Sting West by 1 (PK))

So SoccerStat05 system got all but one game, a 3rd place final where it went to PKs

Interesting and good job SS05

Very cool!

That is cool. Tournaments are sometimes wonky as the number of variables that come into play increases, and the unexpected can certainly happen--see LHD1 champions not making it into the playoff round of State Cup this weekend. It'll be interesting to see if these predictors hold form over the next couple of weekends.

There were 24 games in the 'newly submitted' tab so I added those and did a new calculation. Some games were from the PT Summer Tournament last weekend. I was interested in getting those cross league games in for the strength of schedule calculations.

In general there was not much movement in the overall order of teams after the new calculations. Maybe a swap here and there. I saw a post where someone did the projected vs actual results for the tournament, and I was shocked to see how relatively accurate the statistical rankings were.

6 of the top 10 teams play in that Legend tournament gold bracket. Don't think the statistics will hold up as well for this one. Bunch of these games can go either way depending on who shows up/heat/sleepovers/etc. Should be some exciting matches.