QT brackets are up

Soccer-Fan wrote:Someone explain how Andro-Powers is seeded 3 places behind Andro-Blue???

FC Premier from 28th on FBR to 15th in LH Qual???

Solar Chelsea (Gio)...drops from 7th on FBR to 14th in LH Qual???

Agree, LP-Nicol got screwed...they won their bracket and beat FCD Red in back-to-back weekends, yet FCD Red is seeded 12 places higher...and LP-Thompson at 35??? Does LH have something against LP???

Yeah... The LP Thompson thing was a bit of a surprise as well... oh well, like they said at the meeting... once the schedules are up... Too bad, it is what it is.

If I am reading the tea leaves correctly...

Pool V in week #2 could easily end up being:

FC Premier
Celtic
LP Dalglish
4th place team w/2nd highest points

with one of those 4 teams guaranteed a spot in D1.

Pool X in week #2 projects out to possibly be:

FC Dallas East Red
TFC
Dallas Texans Red
Kicks SC

With at least one of those 4 teams guaranteed to not qualify for LH.

Always interesting...

Well, I'm guessing SOS meant nothing, and that's why it happened that way. I saw a committee member making notes, and I figured it would be kind of rude to lean over his shoulder, but he seemed to be giving numeric scores to different categories. LP Thompson did not play up to their normal standard this weekend...not an excuse...but if I was a seeding committee member and used just King Tut to rank, then I would have said 35, too. Had they played a lower bracket, they might have looked better, thus been seeded higher. Vice/versa with teams who played in Silver, gold, and bronze. But...silly me... I thought the point was to challenge the girls to play to a higher level. It sucks that there was a steep penalty for that.

It looks like Gio forgot to send the edible arrangement.....

bwgophers wrote:If I am reading the tea leaves correctly...

Pool V in week #2 could easily end up being:

FC Premier
Celtic
LP Dalglish
4th place team w/2nd highest points

with one of those 4 teams guaranteed a spot in D1.

Pool X in week #2 projects out to possibly be:

FC Dallas East Red
TFC
Dallas Texans Red
Kicks SC

With at least one of those 4 teams guaranteed to not qualify for LH.

Always interesting...

Gopher,

Why are you picking on just those 8 teams? There are more then 8 teams left for week 2 why does it have to be 4 of those 8 that don't make it?

Teams that got screwed:
-Solar Gio
-DFeeters
-Saints Silver
-Andromeda Blue
-Sting Parker

Teams that got the “benefit of the doubt”
-FC Premier
-Polaris
-FC Dallas West
-Lady Titans

The next two weeks will reveal so much!!!!!!

scoregazam wrote:Teams that got screwed:
-Solar Gio
-DFeeters
-Saints Silver
-Andromeda Blue
-Sting Parker

Teams that got the “benefit of the doubt”
-FC Premier
-Polaris
-FC Dallas West
-Lady Titans

The next two weeks will reveal so much!!!!!!

Solar Gio got screwed?

I say that's what you get for taking the month of July off.

02Dad wrote:

scoregazam wrote:Teams that got screwed:
-Solar Gio
-DFeeters
-Saints Silver
-Andromeda Blue
-Sting Parker

Teams that got the “benefit of the doubt”
-FC Premier
-Polaris
-FC Dallas West
-Lady Titans

The next two weeks will reveal so much!!!!!!

Solar Gio got screwed?

I say that's what you get for taking the month of July off.

Well when you put it that way, I cant really argue with you!!!! I will mark them off my Got Screwed list. You are 100% right

lovesoccer wrote:

bwgophers wrote:If I am reading the tea leaves correctly...

Pool V in week #2 could easily end up being:

FC Premier
Celtic
LP Dalglish
4th place team w/2nd highest points

with one of those 4 teams guaranteed a spot in D1.

Pool X in week #2 projects out to possibly be:

FC Dallas East Red
TFC
Dallas Texans Red
Kicks SC

With at least one of those 4 teams guaranteed to not qualify for LH.

Always interesting...

Gopher,

Why are you picking on just those 8 teams? There are more then 8 teams left for week 2 why does it have to be 4 of those 8 that don't make it?

I think you misunderstand my post. I'm not "picking on" any teams. Lake Highlands uses a known system to form the week #2 brackets based on the week #1 results. I explained the system in post #13 from the following thread a couple of weeks ago..

http://www.txsoccer.net/t12490-lhgcl-qualifying-tournament-2012

Given the Week #1 seedings that were posted today, I simply projected out some of the possible week #2 pools and picked out a couple that I found particularly interesting.

The 1st pool I pointed out above assumes the following:

FC Premier finishes 2nd in Pool J (they are seeded 2nd in Pool J)
Celtic finishes 2nd in Pool A (seeded 2nd in Pool A)
LP Dalglish finishes 3rd in Pool E (they are seeded 2nd in Pool E, but Sting Parker is the 3rd seed and I think most people would have Sting Parker as the favorite to finish 2nd in that pool based on recent results)

By the nature of the QT rules, the winner of that bracket in week #2 will automatically receive a D1 berth. I pointed this possible bracket out because frankly, up until this past weekend, I doubt you could find many people that would have projected any one of those 3 teams as a D1 team this fall. D3 likely, but not D1. It actually will be a great story if it comes to be.

The 2nd pool I pointed out above assumes the following:

FC Dallas East Red finishes 2nd in Pool C (they are the 2nd seed in Pool C)
TFC finishes 2nd in Pool H (they are the 2nd seed in Pool H)
Dallas Texans Red finished 3rd in Pool G (they are the 3rd seed in Pool G)
Kicks SC finishes 3rd in Pool L (they are the 3rd seed in Pool L)

I think many people would consider this somewhat of a "Pool of Death" as many people would consider all four of these teams to be strong contenders to qualify for Lake Highlands. However, if this is the pool, the 4th place team will NOT qualify, and the 3rd place will have to sweat it out on points to see if they qualify.

So, I just found these potential week 2 pools to be a couple of the most interesting possibilities. Obviously there are 63 games that need to be played, and there will certainly be some surprises, and some things that don't go according to the seeding, or according to "consensus". I meant no harm in pointing these out.

Also, I never said that 4 out of these 8 teams will not qualify. In fact, as many as 6 out of those 8 teams could qualify - assuming those are the week #2 pools, which may or may not happen.

scoregazam wrote:

02Dad wrote:

scoregazam wrote:Teams that got screwed:
-Solar Gio
-DFeeters
-Saints Silver
-Andromeda Blue
-Sting Parker

Teams that got the “benefit of the doubt”
-FC Premier
-Polaris
-FC Dallas West
-Lady Titans

The next two weeks will reveal so much!!!!!!

Solar Gio got screwed?

I say that's what you get for taking the month of July off.

Well when you put it that way, I cant really argue with you!!!! I will mark them off my Got Screwed list. You are 100% right

Did you really mean to say Andromeda Blue got screwed or did you mean to say that Andromeda got screwed?

Andromeda Blue is a brand new team, plays King TUT Bronze in their 1st tournament ever and the only team they beat is an FC Dallas White team that isn't even going to QT. Yet they get an automatic pass into Week #2 of the QT as the #25 seed placed in a 3 team bracket, while two teams that beat them in King TUT (Solar Gold and Liverpool Nicol) are seeded #41 & #45 and have to sweat it out in 4-team brackets.

bwgophers wrote:

scoregazam wrote:

02Dad wrote:

scoregazam wrote:Teams that got screwed:
-Solar Gio
-DFeeters
-Saints Silver
-Andromeda Blue
-Sting Parker

Teams that got the “benefit of the doubt”
-FC Premier
-Polaris
-FC Dallas West
-Lady Titans

The next two weeks will reveal so much!!!!!!

Solar Gio got screwed?

I say that's what you get for taking the month of July off.

Well when you put it that way, I cant really argue with you!!!! I will mark them off my Got Screwed list. You are 100% right

Did you really mean to say Andromeda Blue got screwed or did you mean to say that Andromeda got screwed?

Andromeda Blue is a brand new team, plays King TUT Bronze in their 1st tournament ever and the only team they beat is an FC Dallas White team that isn't even going to QT. Yet they get an automatic pass into Week #2 of the QT as the #25 seed placed in a 3 team bracket, while two teams that beat them in King TUT (Solar Gold and Liverpool Nicol) are seeded #41 & #45 and have to sweat it out in 4-team brackets.

Do you think there is any way seeding committee got the 2 confused... Seems awfully generous to give Andro Blue a free pass to week 2... That really doesn't make sense...

For Andro...maybe it helps when one of your U11 coaches is/was on the advisory board at LHGCL.

So if TallTexan's deductions are correct that you click on standings and then 'flight results grid' to see the seedings than some of this is truly baffling at best...this would mean the following teams were seeded as:

Andromeda Powers...26?
Sting Parker....27?
Liverpool Thompson...24?
FC Premier...14??????????
TFC Larry....16???????

I'm sorry lots of crazy going on here. According to Tut scores Parker and Powers both beat LP Thompson this weekend...and Parker and Powers get seeded 10-12 spots below teams they are not only ranked ahead of but have better results than.

Something just doesn't add up....

scoregazam wrote:Teams that got screwed:
-Solar Gio
-DFeeters
-Saints Silver
-Andromeda Blue
-Sting Parker

Teams that got the “benefit of the doubt”
-FC Premier
-Polaris
-FC Dallas West
-Lady Titans

The next two weeks will reveal so much!!!!!!

I was shocked to see Parker ranked so low. But after looking at their bracket I don't think they got screwed after all. They should be ranked above Dalglish, no doubt. But if they had been ranked higher (most likely 14-16 IMO) they would be in the same boat. So they will beat Dalglish easy and still only have one super team to contend with. Would be the same if they had the 16 and Dalglish had the 29 spot.

For comparison's sake, here is LHGCL seeds vs. FBR seeds and how much teams moved up/down. I highlighted some of the moves that appeared extreme.

02Dad or BW GOPHERS...any thoughts/insights on these severe seeding swings?

[img][/img]

Charmel wrote:

scoregazam wrote:Teams that got screwed:
-Solar Gio
-DFeeters
-Saints Silver
-Andromeda Blue
-Sting Parker

Teams that got the “benefit of the doubt”
-FC Premier
-Polaris
-FC Dallas West
-Lady Titans

The next two weeks will reveal so much!!!!!!

I was shocked to see Parker ranked so low. But after looking at their bracket I don't think they got screwed after all. They should be ranked above Dalglish, no doubt. But if they had been ranked higher (most likely 14-16 IMO) they would be in the same boat. So they will beat Dalglish easy and still only have one super team to contend with. Would be the same if they had the 16 and Dalglish had the 29 spot.

You are absolutely correct...if those two teams were flipped flopped
Which they should have been...they're in the same bracket anyway.
The only real fallout in this scenario is one team's pride, maybe that can be turned into a motivator. This is my first exposure to the whole QT thing and the committee has left me scratching my head with several team seedings ....mr.bwgophers I'll never question you again...Sure the FBRs can be tweaked but, at least in this case, it sure beats the human alternative.
Thanks Soccer-Fan for the above chart....Very interesting!

I've been reading these posts for over 3 years now and this is the
first time I have been moved to join and say something:

"Do they serve beer at these QT bracket meetings"?

That is the only way to explain these brackets?

Soccer-Fan wrote:For comparison's sake, here is LHGCL seeds vs. FBR seeds and how much teams moved up/down. I highlighted some of the moves that appeared extreme.

02Dad or BW GOPHERS...any thoughts/insights on these severe seeding swings?

[img][/img]

According to this either, 1)the FBR is really messed up or 2)the evaluators are smoking something. I would guess it is #2

Items that are just unexplainable to me
-FC Premier is a good team, but no deserved to move up 13 spots. Same with LP Dalglish.
-Defeeters dropping all the way down to 16. (Below FC Premier). There is no way that is accurate.

I remember an old saying, If you want the promotion, bring the lotion. Some teams are getting some favorable draws that they may not have really deserved. Time will tell where teams truly belong and it will all work itself out, but it is a shame that the teams that performed well and earned those spots arent getting them.

Or maybe LH sends out an email to coaches and asks them to rank the teams and uses that as a majority of the criteria...

How many coaches do you think really follow all of the teams like the parents do on this board? Maybe that would explain the disparity between the parents expectations and the actual seedings.

I'm just saying...

nukem wrote:Or maybe LH sends out an email to coaches and asks them to rank the teams and uses that as a majority of the criteria...

How many coaches do you think really follow all of the teams like the parents do on this board? Maybe that would explain the disparity between the parents expectations and the actual seedings.

I'm just saying...

That would mean that there are some delusional coaches out there that dont know very much about the game....... Nope that cant be it LOL

Gophers himself has already noted in previous posts that LH does not use FBR in seeding decisions, so not sure why this is coming as such a shock to everyone. Also not sure why fc premiere is getting so much flack; they are a good team that will surprise a lot of people, with 2 very tall & very fast DD's with big legs that will give most teams below the top 5 a challenge.

wilatnus wrote:Gophers himself has already noted in previous posts that LH does not use FBR in seeding decisions, so not sure why this is coming as such a shock to everyone. Also not sure why fc premiere is getting so much flack; they are a good team that will surprise a lot of people, with 2 very tall & very fast DD's with big legs that will give most teams below the top 5 a challenge.

Dont disagree, I have watched them play numerous times, and as I said they are good team that is very athletic, but still a bit of high seeding.
Still think that DFeeters, Andomeda Powers, Sting Parker deserve to be ranked higher than then. Nothing personal against FC Premier.

For more than a year, it has been fun guessing what the seeding committee was going to do. It appears that they didn't think some of the big named teams were good enough for LH. Regardless, the bottom 10 teams of D1 league for 2012 will have to earn their spots on the field. Some teams will have stiff competition but so what.? If you are THAT good, this is the time to show it on the field. Show up, play your best team soccer and beat somebody! Again, if you are THAT good, why would you want to play a bunch of weak teams to prove that you are good? It is crazy to think that you want to be the best yet you don't want to play against the best competition. The bracket is not perfect but good enough to find out which teams belong in D1, give or take couple of teams. Let the fun begin!!

Mwgn wrote:For more than a year, it has been fun guessing what the seeding committee was going to do. It appears that they didn't think some of the big named teams were good enough for LH. Regardless, the bottom 10 teams of D1 league for 2012 will have to earn their spots on the field. Some teams will have stiff competition but so what.? If you are THAT good, this is the time to show it on the field. Show up, play your best team soccer and beat somebody! Again, if you are THAT good, why would you want to play a bunch of weak teams to prove that you are good? It is crazy to think that you want to be the best yet you don't want to play against the best competition. The bracket is not perfect but good enough to find out which teams belong in D1, give or take couple of teams. Let the fun begin!!

+1

First, let me state that while I feel that mslater and I built a pretty good system with FBR and I am overall confident in its relative accuracy, FBR is NOT the be-all-end-all when it comes to rankings or seeding the QT.

I do appreciate the love though!

Many people asked me about the seeding process over the past few weeks and my response was universally consistent... I have no real visibility into the seeding process and will never give any predictions about how LHGCL will seed the QT.

With regards to this year's seeding for the '02's...

The seeding of teams like FC Premier and LP Thompson doesn't really surprise me. There's precedent that teams that do well in a tune-up tournament, even in a lower division, can jump up the seeding significantly (Diamonds received a similar mid-teens seed after a strong performance in Puma Cup Silver bracket last year). Same thing goes for having a relatively poor showing in your bracket in a tune-up tournament like LP Thompson or D'Feeters did this year (FC Dallas Pratt last year saw a similar seeding drop to LP Thompson).

The ones that are the biggest head-scratchers to me are:

1) Andromeda Blue & FC Dallas Red - No offense to either of these teams, but how Andromeda Blue ends up seeded roughly 20 spots higher than 2 teams they lost to in King TUT (LP Nicol and Solar Gold), and how FC Dallas Red ends up seeded roughly 10 spots higher than 2 team that they lost to in King TUT (LP Nicol and Crush) makes absolutely no sense to me.

2) The lack of seeding respect that the bulk of the teams from King TUT Platinum B got. I can sort of see LP Thompson, although I think they were punished too harshly, but Saints, Andromeda, and Sting Parker? Especially Andromeda and Sting Parker seeded LOWER than Andromeda Blue??? I see no explanation there.

I did get a PM last night from someone who claims to have been involved in the seeding process in the past, and that person told me that he/she was absolutely scratching their head over how the '02 seeds came out this year. This person also told me that the woman who has headed up the seeding committee for the past 7-8 years was NOT involved in the seeding process this year and is no longer with LHGCL.

While I have no reason to doubt the source of my information, I can not verify any of that, but it might explain some of the head-scratchers this year.

The only thing that I can think, is that LHGCL relied heavily on reports from the game observers this year, and weighted this more heavily than looking at bracket strength and results in the tournament brackets.

If you think about it, in a game between two mis-matched teams in a weaker division, the "better" team can look really good, moving the ball well because the opponent isn't athletic or skilled enough to challenge them. On the flip-side, I've seen plenty of games between closely matched, highly ranked teams that turn into ugly kickball matches or scrums because the teams challenge each other and don't give each other the space and time to operate and display their skill to the best ability (they are 10 yrs. old after all). If the same person didn't observe both games, I could see where game reports might not tell the real story, because the two different observers don't have the general reference of comparing the overall speed and skill level displayed in the lower bracket vs. higher bracket games.

Also, the time of day of the game that the observer was at could have made a HUGE difference this past weekend. I saw it first hand with my DD's games this past weekend that the quality of soccer played on Friday evening and Saturday morning was FAR better than what was played on Saturday afternoon, when both teams were playing their 2nd game of the day in 107 degree heat.

However, at the end of the day, what Mwgn said is absolutely correct. Seedings aren't going to change, so teams are going to have the play the hand they're dealt, and if they want to play in LHGCL this fall, they need to show up these next 2 weekends and make it happen on the field.

FBR ranks you in a group with teams of about the same ability but it really does not predict that result of two teams next to each other. I'm not sure Gophers would think 7 spots or less is a big miss between his rankings and LH seeds. Combine that with LH looking more to recent performance while FBR dates to the first of the year and 7 spots seems maybe close enough.

The real interesting stuff is the teams that got placed 8+ spots different. LP Thompson, Andro Blue, Andro Powers, LP Dalglish, FC Premier, FCD West, FCD Red, Polaris, Lady Titans, Dallas Kicks are all placed dramatically differently than FBR thought. It will be interesting to see how many of these teams prove LH wrong or FBR wrong. Gophers, how many seeds were 8+ different last year with the 01s? That's like 20% of seeds different by more than 20%.

In the end though MWGN is right. Time to win. Time to play your best soccer.