'04 Girls FBR Rankings - 05-07-13

a team wins 3 out of 18 games played is ranked 14? that's just a bit much. 2 out of 8 in 12th. good thing these don't count for much other than banter like this because you'd have three dozen teams signing up for the top leagues just to get a boost in the rankings!

to hear a coach turn to the parents and say, hey guys we won 1 game out of 8 this season but we're considered a top 20 team (#19).. that'd be a fun meeting to sit in on.

The Real Decoy wrote:a team wins 3 out of 18 games played is ranked 14? that's just a bit much. 2 out of 8 in 12th. good thing these don't count for much other than banter like this because you'd have three dozen teams signing up for the top leagues just to get a boost in the rankings!

to hear a coach turn to the parents and say, hey guys we won 1 game out of 8 this season but we're considered a top 20 team (#19).. that'd be a fun meeting to sit in on.

Do you have any idea what D'Feeters '02 record was in the 6 months leading up to QT last year that had them ranked #9 in the FBR going into QT? Any idea where they qualified and finished in Lake Highlands after the full U11 season?

Any idea what Lady Aztecs '01 record was in the 6 months leading up to QT in 2011 that had them ranked #17 in the FBR? Any idea where they qualified and finished in Lake Highlands after the full U11 season?

Any idea what TFC Blue '01's record was in the 6 months leading up to QT in 2011 that had them ranked #29 in the FBR? Any idea where they qualified and finished in Lake Highlands after the full U11 season?

Those age groups are ancient. Any of these 04s ranked from 20-45 could win 3 out of 18 games. Who's to say they'd beat any of the teams ranked below them? We wouldn't know because they don't win.. A for effort I guess.

The Real Decoy wrote:Those age groups are ancient. Any of these 04s ranked from 20-45 could win 3 out of 18 games.

Got 3 years of historical data that would beg to differ if those teams signed up to play in TGPL and PTCL Gold like the current #14 '04 team did this Spring. The teams ranked 30-45 would get the same treatment that Solar Armstrong got playing in SDL Platinum this Spring.

But then again, you're probably right, FBR knew what it was doing last year and 2 years ago, but the forumla that hasn't changed since then, has clearly grown stupid this year.

Can't knock #14. Solid club with SOLID competition, regardless what the W-L record is.

Don't point to historical data and say that's the alpha and omega.

Talk to the people who actually watch the games. #39 TFC crushed #31 Solar Gold 5-2 and it was lucky to be that close -- a team that was ranked #19 at the start of the season.

Time will tell. And to keep saying "but the last 6 months leading up to Lake Highlands..." shouldn't that be assumed because everything has worked itself out by that time?

Tell you what. To keep this friendly, save this particular ranking and if 10 or more of these teams (in the top 20) are ranked within 2 places of where they are now come Jan 1 2014, I will buy you dinner. And no cheating.

You heard it here!

soccerdad1969 wrote:Can't knock #14. Solid club with SOLID competition, regardless what the W-L record is.

In any league in any sport in the world if you're winning less than 20% of your games, you are not a solid team. If the bottom 3 teams in the EPL played against Turkeys top teams, they'd get smoked.

I can understand your gripe about the W-L record, but having played this team, and others ranked above, below, and where we are at, if I didn't know what this team's W-L record was, I would have guessed it was ranked about where it should be ranked.

soccerdad1969 wrote:Can't knock #14. Solid club with SOLID competition, regardless what the W-L record is.

Played against them couple times...I agree, good team

Agree to disagree. There are a handful of teams in the top dozen that only have 11 total players, and without guests or help, it'll be interesting to see what happens when they need a full squad of 15/16.

Wouldn't move DT Scott either...played them as well...good team

soccerdad1969 wrote:I can understand your gripe about the W-L record, but having played this team, and others ranked above, below, and where we are at, if I didn't know what this team's W-L record was, I would have guessed it was ranked about where it should be ranked.

I can respect this view, but, the fact is, you have to win games, not just give it a good go. If your favorite team won this infrequently in a professional or collegiate sport, or any sport outside of girls soccer for whatever reason, and you kept saying ok guys we're really going to turn things around now, or, ahh, we're not really that bad! you'd be as crazy as crazy can be.

Actually, I would say the top 3 and Spirit Clark have been consistent for sometime now.

the top 6 for me are a lock. the rest outside of that is a total crap shoot and any team in the 20's and even a handful in the 30's could beat 95% of the teams from 7 down.

Final 2012 FBR: http://www.txsoccer.net/t14037-04-fbr-rankings-12-11-12-final-fall-12-rankings.

A few were wondering if anything changed..

The Real Decoy wrote:Don't point to historical data and say that's the alpha and omega.

Talk to the people who actually watch the games. #39 TFC crushed #31 Solar Gold 5-2 and it was lucky to be that close -- a team that was ranked #19 at the start of the season.

Time will tell. And to keep saying "but the last 6 months leading up to Lake Highlands..." shouldn't that be assumed because everything has worked itself out by that time?

Tell you what. To keep this friendly, save this particular ranking and if 10 or more of these teams (in the top 20) are ranked within 2 places of where they are now come Jan 1 2014, I will buy you dinner. And no cheating.

You heard it here!

Rosters will change between now and Jan 1 2014 so your bound to win but then again he only has to be within 2 spots on 50% so I will take the bet and I will raise you a few drinks with that dinner!

Ps - I like the passion...

The Real Decoy wrote:Agree to disagree. There are a handful of teams in the top dozen that only have 11 total players, and without guests or help, it'll be interesting to see what happens when they need a full squad of 15/16.

Wouldn't stress too much, from what I see the formula is heavily weighted to the perceived difficulty of the leagues compared to the actual results in those games. I see multiple examples of teams that have lost games against "lower ranked" squads yet are still ranked higher. Also see teams who've barely beaten teams 20 places lower but since they play to a 1 and something record in SDL P they remain highly ranked.

Overall it's honestly an impossible task when the teams are so "fluid" and player with different players each game and all play in different leagues.

That all being said, I can't fault the effort to create and maintain it. And to his point you have to look at as general grouping of talent. I doubt there's much difference between 35 and 25 on any given day.

yeah BWG with your stupid numbers and math and data backed by years of test results. You have to give all 95 teams the eyeball test. See you out at the games this weekend you have a lot of games to watch.

Just a question, under the W-L decoy ranking system couldn't I just play below my level and smash all the teams and them bang I just passed RASE. Equal win loss record but I could pile on more goals.

The problem is when the best 3 players from say team ranked #23 decide to guest play with #17 in a tourney which gets calculated into these rankings now you have dirty data... (For lack of a better term)

go99 wrote:yeah BWG with your stupid numbers and math and data backed by years of test results. You have to give all 95 teams the eyeball test. See you out at the games this weekend you have a lot of games to watch.

Just a question, under the W-L decoy ranking system couldn't I just play below my level and smash all the teams and them bang I just passed RASE. Equal win loss record but I could pile on more goals.

Easy there. Historical data is just that - historic. It doesn't tell us what's happening now or in the future. And like all historical data in every other aspect of life - real estate, the stock exchange, weather, .. ANYTHING, things change, data changes and many times the calculations need to be altered. That, too, is historical fact.

I'm not busting the ranking, I pointed out three glaring zits. Any team from 20-30 could take down 3 out of 18 games in those leagues. They're 9, just park the bus (but make sure to park it in the right goal).

FIFA Rankings.. decades of data. Croatia #4 in the world, Colombia #6 and Ecuador #10? But the data don't lie!!!!!!

But to answer your question, YES, a team can do that. Because when they get to RASE or Dalglish and get smashed, all of their other wins cancel out the embarrassing loss and you're still golden.

go99 wrote:yeah BWG with your stupid numbers and math and data backed by years of test results. You have to give all 95 teams the eyeball test. See you out at the games this weekend you have a lot of games to watch.

Just a question, under the W-L decoy ranking system couldn't I just play below my level and smash all the teams and them bang I just passed RASE. Equal win loss record but I could pile on more goals.

You could do that. But then, when you get beat twice by a team that got drilled 11-0 by the top dog you realize just how far behind you really are.

Funny you say that Po Boy, I was thinking the same thing..

FS05 wrote:

The Real Decoy wrote:Don't point to historical data and say that's the alpha and omega.

Talk to the people who actually watch the games. #39 TFC crushed #31 Solar Gold 5-2 and it was lucky to be that close -- a team that was ranked #19 at the start of the season.

Time will tell. And to keep saying "but the last 6 months leading up to Lake Highlands..." shouldn't that be assumed because everything has worked itself out by that time?

Tell you what. To keep this friendly, save this particular ranking and if 10 or more of these teams (in the top 20) are ranked within 2 places of where they are now come Jan 1 2014, I will buy you dinner. And no cheating.

You heard it here!

Rosters will change between now and Jan 1 2014 so your bound to win but then again he only has to be within 2 spots on 50% so I will take the bet and I will raise you a few drinks with that dinner!

Ps - I like the passion...

You're on.

Hard to follow this one:

#73 NTX Striker '04 Blue Sanchez; jumps 8 spots up after going; 0-3, 0 goals for and 34 goals against
after playing the #2, #3, & #4 ranked teams.

So its best to play higher ranked teams and lose big and get a big bust to your ranking spot???