Fall LHGCL strength of schedule

I thought this was somewhat interesting...

Team	Current Rank	Avg Fall Opponent Rank
Mustangs	20	6.5
Liverpool Redknapp	18	6.6
Sting Central	16	8.2
Sting North	19	8.2
Solar Chelsea	15	8.3
FC Dallas Premier	12	8.6
Dallas Texans Red	11	9.2
Texas Spirit North	14	9.6
Odyssey	8	10.4
Dallas Kicks	17	10.4
Sting Donovan	13	11
Sting East	9	11.1
Sting Gutierrez	10	11.3
D'Feeters Black	3	11.6
Liverpool Elite	2	12.3
Dallas Texans	7	12.6
Liverpool Premier	1	12.7
Texas Spirit	5	13.4
Dallas Texans South	4	13.8
Liverpool Owen	6	14.4

The outliers:
Mustangs haven't played an opponent ranked below 11 in the fall.
Liverpool Redknapp have already played 1-8.
Liverpool Owen haven't played a team ranked higher than 8.

That explains some of the records, but leaves ???? for others.

fangbracken wrote:I thought this was somewhat interesting...

Team	Current Rank	Avg Fall Opponent Rank
Mustangs	20	6.5
Liverpool Redknapp	18	6.6
Sting Central	16	8.2
Sting North	19	8.2
Solar Chelsea	15	8.3
FC Dallas Premier	12	8.6
Dallas Texans Red	11	9.2
Texas Spirit North	14	9.6
Odyssey	8	10.4
Dallas Kicks	17	10.4
Sting Donovan	13	11
Sting East	9	11.1
Sting Gutierrez	10	11.3
D'Feeters Black	3	11.6
Liverpool Elite	2	12.3
Dallas Texans	7	12.6
Liverpool Premier	1	12.7
Texas Spirit	5	13.4
Dallas Texans South	4	13.8
Liverpool Owen	6	14.4

The outliers:
Mustangs haven't played an opponent ranked below 11 in the fall.
Liverpool Redknapp have already played 1-8.
Liverpool Owen haven't played a team ranked higher than 8.

Strength of schedule does not matter. Everyone plays everyone one time!!! Now or in Spring.  Certain teams will continue to win and some have to find a way to win but the main goal is to win the games your suppose to and not drop games you shouldn't.  
A better question is HOW MANY POINTS WILL IT TAKE TO STAY IN D1 THIS YEAR?????  If you look at past seasons 24 points or higher gets you into D1.  Who can do the math that will say what will be the minimum points to make D1 for the 04s?

Mustangs and LP Redknapp have under performed.  If they want to make D1 all they have to do is win 8 games and tie 1 and they have a chance! So if they played all the "top teams" then the spring should leave them no excuses not win and get the points they need.
LP Owen is a good team and will still find wins or ties in the spring, but will run into the teams EVERYONE IS LOSING TO, they will just need to find their points and win games they should and perhaps win games they are not suppose to win.  Spring will be interesting to see how it plays out!!!! Good luck to everyone, Ohh here is the last FBR that was put out, perhaps the teams who are performing are still ranked similar, and some teams not so much

http://www.txsoccer.net/t21999-04-girls-final-fbr-ranking-07-21-14

http://events.gotsport.com/events/results.aspx?EventID=38996&Gender=Girls&Age=11

fangbracken wrote:I thought this was somewhat interesting...

Team	Current Rank	Avg Fall Opponent Rank
Mustangs	20	6.5
Liverpool Redknapp	18	6.6
Sting Central	16	8.2
Sting North	19	8.2
Solar Chelsea	15	8.3
FC Dallas Premier	12	8.6
Dallas Texans Red	11	9.2
Texas Spirit North	14	9.6
Odyssey	8	10.4
Dallas Kicks	17	10.4
Sting Donovan	13	11
Sting East	9	11.1
Sting Gutierrez	10	11.3
D'Feeters Black	3	11.6
Liverpool Elite	2	12.3
Dallas Texans	7	12.6
Liverpool Premier	1	12.7
Texas Spirit	5	13.4
Dallas Texans South	4	13.8
Liverpool Owen	6	14.4

The outliers:
Mustangs haven't played an opponent ranked below 11 in the fall.
Liverpool Redknapp have already played 1-8.
Liverpool Owen haven't played a team ranked higher than 8.

Isn't this the way the league normally works? What's interesting to me is where teams currently 8-12 will end up. That's gonna be fun to watch. Kudos to DT Red. They've played themselves right into the mix. I'm glad we played them early on. I agree with Teddy Westside as far as Owen is concerned, but think about this....9 games in the Spring and 5 of those are teams currently 1-5. That should be a gauntlet.

WestsideSoccer wrote:
Strength of schedule does not matter. Everyone plays everyone one time!!! Now or in Spring.  

Yes, that's true, but it is somewhat different if you play all of your hard games in the fall versus in the spring.  For one thing, if you're trying to estimate where you'll be at the end of the season, it might be nice to know you have all of your hard games out of the way.  Or maybe it was good for your team to gel while playing their easiest games in the fall.  Just interesting, I think.

adufresne wrote:

fangbracken wrote:I thought this was somewhat interesting...

Team	Current Rank	Avg Fall Opponent Rank
Mustangs	20	6.5
Liverpool Redknapp	18	6.6
Sting Central	16	8.2
Sting North	19	8.2
Solar Chelsea	15	8.3
FC Dallas Premier	12	8.6
Dallas Texans Red	11	9.2
Texas Spirit North	14	9.6
Odyssey	8	10.4
Dallas Kicks	17	10.4
Sting Donovan	13	11
Sting East	9	11.1
Sting Gutierrez	10	11.3
D'Feeters Black	3	11.6
Liverpool Elite	2	12.3
Dallas Texans	7	12.6
Liverpool Premier	1	12.7
Texas Spirit	5	13.4
Dallas Texans South	4	13.8
Liverpool Owen	6	14.4

The outliers:
Mustangs haven't played an opponent ranked below 11 in the fall.
Liverpool Redknapp have already played 1-8.
Liverpool Owen haven't played a team ranked higher than 8.

Isn't this the way the league normally works? What's interesting to me is where teams currently 8-12 will end up. That's gonna be fun to watch. Kudos to DT Red. They've played themselves right into the mix. I'm glad we played them early on. I agree with Teddy Westside as far as Owen is concerned, but think about this....9 games in the Spring and 5 of those are teams currently 1-5. That should be a gauntlet.

Wait, are you telling me you don't think Owen will double their point total to 46 by end of season? JK, with DT Scott also being in there, that makes 6 of 9 games against top competition, so it's actually worse than what you say. Hopefully girls will keep their head up high, be competitive, and hopefully get the few points needed to stay in D1, which was our main goal at the beginning of the season.

SD69 wrote:

adufresne wrote:

fangbracken wrote:I thought this was somewhat interesting...

Team	Current Rank	Avg Fall Opponent Rank
Mustangs	20	6.5
Liverpool Redknapp	18	6.6
Sting Central	16	8.2
Sting North	19	8.2
Solar Chelsea	15	8.3
FC Dallas Premier	12	8.6
Dallas Texans Red	11	9.2
Texas Spirit North	14	9.6
Odyssey	8	10.4
Dallas Kicks	17	10.4
Sting Donovan	13	11
Sting East	9	11.1
Sting Gutierrez	10	11.3
D'Feeters Black	3	11.6
Liverpool Elite	2	12.3
Dallas Texans	7	12.6
Liverpool Premier	1	12.7
Texas Spirit	5	13.4
Dallas Texans South	4	13.8
Liverpool Owen	6	14.4

The outliers:
Mustangs haven't played an opponent ranked below 11 in the fall.
Liverpool Redknapp have already played 1-8.
Liverpool Owen haven't played a team ranked higher than 8.

Isn't this the way the league normally works? What's interesting to me is where teams currently 8-12 will end up. That's gonna be fun to watch. Kudos to DT Red. They've played themselves right into the mix. I'm glad we played them early on. I agree with Teddy Westside as far as Owen is concerned, but think about this....9 games in the Spring and 5 of those are teams currently 1-5. That should be a gauntlet.

Wait, are you telling me you don't think Owen will double their point total to 46 by end of season? JK, with DT Scott also being in there, that makes 6 of 9 games against top competition, so it's actually worse than what you say. Hopefully girls will keep their head up high, be competitive, and hopefully get the few points needed to stay in D1, which was our main goal at the beginning of the season.

Well I don't know about 46 pts but the good knews is they've done what they needed to and they got nothing to lose. I'm sure they'll do just fine. Like I said, for me, 8-12 is where it'll be interesting m

WestsideSoccer wrote: Mustangs and LP Redknapp have under performed.  If they want to make D1 all they have to do is win 8 games and tie 1 and they have a chance!

If you are saying there is a mathematical possibility OK. But then I can also say there is a chance that Burnley can win the Premier League

Mustangs and/or LPR want to get into the top10 to secure a DI spot. That's unlikely. But 100x more likely than your Burnley example c'mon man

SolarPower00 wrote:Mustangs and/or LPR want to get into the top10 to secure a DI spot. That's unlikely. But 100x more likely than your Burnley example c'mon man

Maybe but you are saying there’s a chance….go Burnley

Big questions are what makes the league so interesting, and are all still wide open:
-who wins the league
-who stays in D1
-who's relegated to D2
-who's relegated to D3

SD69 wrote:Big questions are what makes the league so interesting, and are all still wide open:
-who wins the league
-who stays in D1
-who's relegated to D2
-who's relegated to D3

So this is my analysis for what it's worth:

Just a little history over the last 5 years the 10th place team to make D1 had:
03's- 24pts
02's-25pts
01's-25pts
00's-25pts
99's-26pts

(Side note:Most all the 10th place teams to make D1 had 7 wins accept the 01- 10th place team had 6 wins.)

So lets just say the average is 25pts for the 04 group to make D1. Looking at the standings after this fall- teams ranked 1-5 have already qualified. Congrats!

#6 LP Owen is close with 23pts and would need only 1 win in the Spring or 2 ties to get to 25pts

#7 DT Texans Scott is close as well with 21pts and looking at who they have left to play they should get it done.

Spots 8-10 appear to be a fight to the death for the teams ranked 8-13 (Odyssey, Sting East Chacon, Sting Gutierrez, DT Stark, FCD Premier, Tx Spirit North.) Who's in and who's out??? Or could a lower team like Sting Donovan or Solar Pulp surprise us all? Any predictions?

It's going to be an interesting Spring for these teams! Get your popcorn ready!

My synopsis on how D1 rounds out. Please take with a very large grain of salt:

DT Scott easily finishes in the top 6 because I believe they are a top team that has only lost to Elite and had a tie that was a head scratcher. I'm not going to try to rank these but it should be exciting to see how they finish up.

#7 - Odyssey. I think they finish with more than 35 points because they play only 3 of the top 6 teams in the spring and should beat everyone else on the schedule because of the way they are currently playing.
#8 - Chacon.  Finish with 30+ points. They have 4 of the top 6 left on the schedule, but I think they run the table with everyone else.
#9 - Owen. They have the toughest schedule in the spring with all the top 6 teams left to play. Coach will have to keep morale up on the team during the difficult games and hopefully they can steal a game against a top team. I think they could get in with one win, but think they get 3 over the course of the spring.
#10 - Texans Red. They only have LP Premier left on the schedule out of the top 6 but will have to win games against similar competition. Not bad for a team that finished the last FBR ranked at #21.

If Owen can beat Texans Red, I see that the #10 team could have as many as 28 points. If Red beats Owen, then I think 26 will be the magic number.

Other teams that can make a realistic run at D1 IMO: FCD, Donovan, and Solar. Sting Gutierrez has a lot of points now, but the competition is pretty solid in the spring for them.

Good luck teams! It should be fun to watch.

My two cents worth, and which I've stated previously, is that I don't believe some folks realize how close teams outside the "top 5" down to say #18 really are. It'll come down to individual player match ups, funny bounces, an inadvertent handball in the box, a referees blown call, player injuries, etc., deciding the outcome on that given day. The "top" teams can generally overcome those factors. Time will tell if those currently ranked #6-10 will display the quality of play and consistency needed to hold on to those spots.

KnKsDad wrote:My two cents worth, and which I've stated previously, is that I don't believe some folks realize how close teams outside the "top 5" down to say #18 really are. It'll come down to individual player match ups, funny bounces, an inadvertent handball in the box, a referees blown call, player injuries, etc., deciding the outcome on that given day. The "top" teams can generally overcome those factors. Time will tell if those currently ranked #6-10 will display the quality of play and consistency needed to hold on to those spots.

My two cents is just as there is a difference between the top 5 and 6 - 10, there is a noticable difference in play and athleticism between 6 - 10 and 11 - 15, just as there is between 11 - 15 & 16 - 20. That being said, more often than not, the team in the top 5 will beat the teams 6 - 10, with an occasional upset. This is true for teams 6 - 10 when then play 11 - 15, etc. Given Fall schedules, some team currently in the 11 - 15 spots could break into the top 10 and vice versa. At the same time, based on how I have seen the teams play, I think teams 11 - 15 will be playing for the 10th spot and the teams currently in the top 9 will all make D1 next year.

Another interesting observation is that all teams outside the top 9 have given up more goals than they have scored. Unless these teams had a brutal Fall schedule (like having to play all the top 7 teams), this is a telling statistic around overall team balance and play. To win games, you have to score more goals than you give up - for teams currently outside the top 10, they will need to change these results if they want to win enough games to make up the points needed to qualify for D1 next year.

 To win games, you have to score more goals than you give up

Wow...you figure that one all out by yourself?

Peak_Performance_Dad wrote:

KnKsDad wrote:My two cents worth, and which I've stated previously, is that I don't believe some folks realize how close teams outside the "top 5" down to say #18 really are. It'll come down to individual player match ups, funny bounces, an inadvertent handball in the box, a referees blown call, player injuries, etc., deciding the outcome on that given day. The "top" teams can generally overcome those factors. Time will tell if those currently ranked #6-10 will display the quality of play and consistency needed to hold on to those spots.

My two cents is just as there is a difference between the top 5 and 6 - 10, there is a noticable difference in play and athleticism between 6 - 10 and 11 - 15, just as there is between 11 - 15 & 16 - 20.  That being said, more often than not, the team in the top 5 will beat the teams 6  - 10, with an occasional upset.  This is true for teams 6 - 10 when then play 11 - 15, etc.  Given Fall schedules, some team currently in the 11 - 15 spots could break into the top 10 and vice versa.  At the same time, based on how I have seen the teams play, I think teams 11 - 15 will be playing for the 10th spot and the teams currently in the top 9 will all make D1 next year.

Another interesting observation is that all teams outside the top 9 have given up more goals than they have scored.  Unless these teams had a brutal Fall schedule (like having to play all the top 7 teams), this is a telling statistic around overall team balance and play.  To win games, you have to score more goals than you give up - for teams currently outside the top 10, they will need to change these results if they want to win enough games to make up the points needed to qualify for D1 next year.

First off I wasn't singling out any one specific team with my previous comments. I was actually speaking to the overall parity that I believe exists. Some might view that as complementary and some might take that as offensive and become defensive. I disagree with you on your highlighted statement above. Using our two teams for the basis of comparison, there would be a noticeable difference in play and athleticism between #8 and #13 and I don't believe that to be true. With respect to your occasional upset comment, that only applies if the higher ranked team truly deserved the higher ranking which has yet to be determined for those teams in the range I cited. That's what will make the spring season so much fun and probably frustrating at the same time.

KnKsDad wrote:My two cents worth, and which I've stated previously, is that I don't believe some folks realize how close teams outside the "top 5" down to say #18 really are. It'll come down to individual player match ups, funny bounces, an inadvertent handball in the box, a referees blown call, player injuries, etc., deciding the outcome on that given day. The "top" teams can generally overcome those factors. Time will tell if those currently ranked #6-10 will display the quality of play and consistency needed to hold on to those spots.

Maybe some of us don't realize it because it might not be accurate. While we are all entitled to our opinion, the games that I have seen show there is a quite a difference between #7 (currently DT Scott) and #18 (currently Dallas Kicks) - just my two cents. I think the parity exists in smaller pockets (1-5, 5-10ish, 10ish - 15, 15 - 20). That is my observation and I'm sticking with it.

My intention here is not to create drama or bad feelings, but I do think there is quite a difference between #6 down to #18. I could be alone on this, but this has been my observation, which I believe to be pretty unbiased. There are definitely some faster, more skilled, more athletic teams than my DDs team, although our girls are improving. To KnKsDad's point, maybe some of the teams between 11 - 20 will make the jump in the Spring and win out - you never know.

Isn't this the same discussion as last year?

1-5 or 6 stand alone. Is there a one off game were they get beat by a lower team? Sure. But overall these girls are going to win against 6+ 99% of the time. Probably no change here except Scott moving in and Owen out. The next group is only about 3-4 teams that are close but either lack the players, play inconsistent, or play a more "direct" style that can't hold up to the top teams. But they are either bigger or stronger than the next group so can stay somewhat separated from them.

After that you can probably group the next 10 in D1 and 5 in D3 together. Pretty much 3 types of teams in that group, kickball with 1 or 2 fast forwards, solid teams trying to play the right way but have not developed the skills yet, and a few teams in the middle but have 1 or 2 stand out players that can win games on their own. They'll play each other tight but would have to have a lot of things go their way to beat the top 10 teams.

In my opinion there was no reason not to have a D2 this year. The only question out there is which teams are 8-10 and which are 18-20 the rest are "who we thought they are". No reason to take teams from 12 and up and force the though the gauntlet of the top 6. Sorry nothing is being developed by having a GD of -34.

Peak_Performance_Dad wrote:

KnKsDad wrote:My two cents worth, and which I've stated previously, is that I don't believe some folks realize how close teams outside the "top 5" down to say #18 really are. It'll come down to individual player match ups, funny bounces, an inadvertent handball in the box, a referees blown call, player injuries, etc., deciding the outcome on that given day. The "top" teams can generally overcome those factors. Time will tell if those currently ranked #6-10 will display the quality of play and consistency needed to hold on to those spots.

Maybe some of us don't realize it because it might not be accurate.  While we are all entitled to our opinion, the games that I have seen show there is a quite a difference between #7 (currently DT Scott) and #18 (currently Dallas Kicks) - just my two cents.  I think the parity exists in smaller pockets (1-5, 5-10ish, 10ish - 15, 15 - 20).  That is my observation and I'm sticking with it.

My intention here is not to create drama or bad feelings, but I do think there is quite a difference between #6 down to #18.  I could be alone on this, but this has been my observation, which I believe to be pretty unbiased.  There are definitely some faster, more skilled, more athletic teams than my DDs team, although our girls are improving.  To KnKsDad's point, maybe some of the teams between 11 - 20 will make the jump in the Spring and win out - you never know.

Not wanting to get in a pissing contest with you, because we know how that can turn out in this North Texas wind, but you're waffling, contradicting, reaching or whatever the term is. Your statement which I highlighted above speaks for itself. In support of my opinion, I gave you an example of where I don't believe that to be true. I don't believe that there is "quite a difference" as you say. You come back with a Scott/Kicks comparison. Why use that one? Scott is arguably a "top 5" team, which time will tell, and will then go to support my initial point. You used a comparison between #7 and #18. What about a different comparison like between the current #8 team and #17 team? Or what about #8 and #15? So let me ask you, did you witness firsthand a noticeable difference in play and athleticism when those teams matched up? I'm not saying you are being biased, just unaware.

KnKsDad wrote:

Peak_Performance_Dad wrote:

KnKsDad wrote:My two cents worth, and which I've stated previously, is that I don't believe some folks realize how close teams outside the "top 5" down to say #18 really are. It'll come down to individual player match ups, funny bounces, an inadvertent handball in the box, a referees blown call, player injuries, etc., deciding the outcome on that given day. The "top" teams can generally overcome those factors. Time will tell if those currently ranked #6-10 will display the quality of play and consistency needed to hold on to those spots.

Maybe some of us don't realize it because it might not be accurate.  While we are all entitled to our opinion, the games that I have seen show there is a quite a difference between #7 (currently DT Scott) and #18 (currently Dallas Kicks) - just my two cents.  I think the parity exists in smaller pockets (1-5, 5-10ish, 10ish - 15, 15 - 20).  That is my observation and I'm sticking with it.

My intention here is not to create drama or bad feelings, but I do think there is quite a difference between #6 down to #18.  I could be alone on this, but this has been my observation, which I believe to be pretty unbiased.  There are definitely some faster, more skilled, more athletic teams than my DDs team, although our girls are improving.  To KnKsDad's point, maybe some of the teams between 11 - 20 will make the jump in the Spring and win out - you never know.

Not wanting to get in a pissing contest with you, because we know how that can turn out in this North Texas wind, but you're waffling, contradicting, reaching or whatever the term is. Your statement which I highlighted above speaks for itself. In support of my opinion, I gave you an example of where I don't believe that to be true. I don't believe that there is "quite a difference" as you say. You come back with a Scott/Kicks comparison. Why use that one? Scott is arguably a "top 5" team, which time will tell, and will then go to support my initial point. You used a comparison between #7 and #18. What about a different comparison like between the current #8 team and #17 team? Or what about #8 and #15? So let me ask you, did you witness firsthand a noticeable difference in play and athleticism when those teams matched up? I'm not saying you are being biased, just unaware.

Anyway - let's just stop now. We disagree - end of point. Let's agree to disagree and move on.

My prediction is this - the teams currently in places 1 - 9 will all make D1 next year. One of the teams in place 10 - 14 will take the 10th spot. If I am wrong, you can have a hayday at my expense on this site after spring season. If I am right, you won't be able to.

Feel free to make your prediction, especially if you are predicting different results.