FBR 07G June 21st 2016

Yes, the data is accurate and all of the information is correct, based on the information you control.

1. You change the tiers every release.  I believe once you had over a dozen teams one week,  with half that the week before.  There are only truly 3 tier 1 teams at this point: kicks, solar, and Sting Flanagan aka solar purple with a dash of Texans south.  The #3 ranked team should do well in big travel tournaments. In this case, it would embarrass north texas.

2. You only release a new table after LFS increases their points (can fact check on past releases) after you have manipulated those tiers. 67, 73, 70, 74, 78. Losses against teams that are in reality tier 2 and 3, not 1.

3. Historically, tier 1 teams in ntx can compete nationally. LFS losing by a touchdown to a fellow tier 1 team in solar, only one spot above lfs, does not put lfs on that same level.  Convenient to put all of lfs opponents in tier one to make up for that obvious fact.  

4. You have put too much weight on the wrong leagues.

5. (For the audience) When LFS takes a knock, dont expect FBR to be published for at least a month, or until LFS gets a good result. Or, the tiers have been altered again.

The rankings do matter a year from now when seeding is done for lake highlands. It would be best if someone with more integrity took over.  One without a daughter on a 07 team (lfs) -- Now the cats out of the bag on who is publishing these. It all makes sense.

Meh.

In the past 7 years, exactly ZERO top 10 FBR or LH seeds have failed to qualify for D1. You can stop with the over-dramatics about the importance of the order of the top 5 or 6 teams in the rankings when it comes QT time... They all are going to qualify.

This isn't a take over situation.   This is a volunteer doing FBR.    If you don't like the way it is being done then Cowboy Up (Mr. Honor System) and start doing FBR or a version of ranking that you would like to spend countless hours working on and publishing.  There is no forum law saying only one person can post an FBR.  

I would like to point out that the current and past FBR publishers communicate almost on a daily basis.   Not always about FBR issues sometimes to just listen to me vent about my teenagers or whatever but we do communicate about each other's rankings and ask for input.    We share the files and we scrutinize the data.  Is FBR perfect ?   No absolutely not.    Can someone do it better.......better probably not , different with different issues..... Definitely.     But to imply that FBR07 is taking the data to favor a certain team is absurd.    



06southgirl (aka FBR06g)

Disclaimer: I have no connection at all to this age bracket.

Look, the reality is the exact ranking makes little difference to the end fact which is that the accuracy of predicting who gets in to LHGCL is pretty darn good given the heterogeneity of the teams, where they play, and who they play. A difference of a few spots in seeding really has very little to do with the final outcome if the teams perform to their level. Things happen on the field where a better team loses, but over two weekends, the qualifying system is pretty fair. And then the relegation system also lets the results speak for themselves.

EVEN if someone wanted to blame seeding for why their team didn't make a 20 team supergroup, it only takes one year for the relegation process to put them back in the top 20 teams and then if they really are that good another year to get to top ten. So by the time you are 13, you are in top 10 -- ASSUMING you thought you should belong there originally, your kid is 13 and back where "they belong". It's not the end of the world.

If you fall to Plano, then it certainly wasn't seeding that got you there. I would submit, though, IMO, that if you failed to make top 20 in the supergroup, well, it probably wasn't seeding. I would also point out that the seeding in LHGCL is not exactly the FBR either.

I commend the FBR folks for putting in the effort, because it is completely thankless. and I'm sure, the source of much stress and complaining.

3/22
4/6
4/18
5/4
5/17
6/2
6/21

Every 2 weeks, except last, and June 4th weekend rained out, so 2 weeks of games... Check the posting dates.

Your posts and PMs have been noted, BW and I work closely on the rankings as we know we have a certain couple high maintenance consumers(a certain parent and coach).  Keep posting, keeps us sharp.

When the fall data starts to populate, I expect a number of changes.  Currently in the data is 3 LFS wins over Flanagan.  Flanny has done a great job adding some talent and easily winning Premier Copa over Solar Blue/Springate/Byars and Tex Nguyen, they will be a Dribble.  FBR just doesn't change one day to the next, due to a few great additions.  So you show your lack of knowledge of FBR.  Let's say LFS moved to tier 2 and there were only 3 Tier ones(Kicks, Srsa and Flanny).  3 wins from a tier 2 over a tier 1 would probably help LFS.  You want that?  Plus would screw up the Tier vs Tier. Fall data will fix everything.

FWIW: I also see 3 teams in tier 1 for fall as I think the 3 you mentioned, will separate themselves from the pack(like Sting Black, Solar Red and DTS did in 06 world).  I just need data and not my, MS/Honor System or BT thoughts.  Data is the driver.

It appears an early season tourney will have those 3 'tier ones' playing, should be a good one.

Fbr is not in question. It's as nearly perfect as a prediction gets as proven year after year. Just not this version.  Fix the tiers, leave it be.

Bw, historically, when has a tier 1 team ever lost to another tier 1 team by a margin of 7+?   Or a tier 1 team gone to a big tournament and lost by that margin?

And, historically, when has someone that does these rankings picked fights with parents under their normal handle (boilerjoe) regularly, and hand out digs and predictions against other teams like in superCopa, where your predictions were as wrong as your table above?

Honor system wrote:
Fix the tiers, leave it be.

That's not how FBR works. Never has been. FBR and the ranking tiers are dynamic and will always change week-week. The data dictates how the tiers are formed.

I know I've told multiple people, but don't remember if I posted it publicly on here, but the Tier consolidation that you and others are complaining about was actually MY recommendation to FBR07. So if you want to pin that on someone, pin it on me.

Also, as FBR07 stated, we have both looked at modifying the Tiers along the lines that you and others have suggested...

1) Based on the historic methodology that FBR has used since the '01's, the data doesn't support that kind of tier breakdown AT THIS TIME. As older results start falling off from the history, and get replaced by new results this fall, that may change, and FBR07 will adjust it as necessary.
2) Assuming you represent one of the couple of teams that has PM'd me about this over the past few months, if you don't like the current rankings, you most certainly wouldn't like what those rankings would look like if we ignored our methodology and implemented the tier structure that you believe is correct.

As always, if it bothers you that much, please feel free to start up and publish your own rankings. Use FBR, or use a different method. FBR was started because someone didn't like the ranking system that someone else was using and publishing on the forum.

FBR07G wrote:we have a certain couple high maintenance consumers(a certain parent .

I was told you rang.

Keep up the great work! Wish your Pre-ECNL 9 year old team all the best this weekend.

Hahahaha I guess some things never change. Looked on here to see where the little bits were at and see LFS still keeping the headlines. Where is RASE 07?

Teams 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10,20,21 (and more) are playing on Sundays in PrimeTime Clubs League

Teams List - https://events.gotsport.com/events/teamlist.aspx?showall=clean&eventid=53439

Honor system wrote:Yes, the data is accurate and all of the information is correct, based on the information you control.

1. You change the tiers every release.  I believe once you had over a dozen teams one week,  with half that the week before.  There are only truly 3 tier 1 teams at this point: kicks, solar, and Sting Flanagan aka solar purple with a dash of Texans south.  The #3 ranked team should do well in big travel tournaments. In this case, it would embarrass north texas.

2. You only release a new table after LFS increases their points (can fact check on past releases) after you have manipulated those tiers. 67, 73, 70, 74, 78. Losses against teams that are in reality tier 2 and 3, not 1.

3. Historically, tier 1 teams in ntx can compete nationally. LFS losing by a touchdown to a fellow tier 1 team in solar, only one spot above lfs, does not put lfs on that same level.  Convenient to put all of lfs opponents in tier one to make up for that obvious fact.  

4. You have put too much weight on the wrong leagues.

5. (For the audience) When LFS takes a knock, dont expect FBR to be published for at least a month, or until LFS gets a good result. Or, the tiers have been altered again.

The rankings do matter a year from now when seeding is done for lake highlands. It would be best if someone with more integrity took over.  One without a daughter on a 07 team (lfs) -- Now the cats out of the bag on who is publishing these. It all makes sense.

Your comments make me want to crack you over the head with a Heinz 57 bottle. Stop it!

Teams 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11,20,21 (and more) are playing on Sundays in PrimeTime Clubs League

Teams List - https://events.gotsport.com/events/teamlist.aspx?showall=clean&eventid=53439

Honor system wrote:

Bw, historically, when has a tier 1 team ever lost to another tier 1 team by a margin of 7+?   Or a tier 1 team gone to a big tournament and lost by that margin?

August 7, 2016.  

bwgophers wrote:

Honor system wrote:

Bw, historically, when has a tier 1 team ever lost to another tier 1 team by a margin of 7+?   Or a tier 1 team gone to a big tournament and lost by that margin?

August 7, 2016.  

Very classy...glad you are still so interested in keeping up with 9 year old soccer

bigtex wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

Honor system wrote:

Bw, historically, when has a tier 1 team ever lost to another tier 1 team by a margin of 7+?   Or a tier 1 team gone to a big tournament and lost by that margin?

August 7, 2016.  

Very classy...glad you are still so interested in keeping up with 9 year old soccer

I was asked a direct question. I gave a direct answer.

bwgophers wrote:

bigtex wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

Honor system wrote:

Bw, historically, when has a tier 1 team ever lost to another tier 1 team by a margin of 7+?   Or a tier 1 team gone to a big tournament and lost by that margin?

August 7, 2016.  

Very classy...glad you are still so interested in keeping up with 9 year old soccer

I was asked a direct question.  I gave a direct answer.

Yes because that tournament is so relevant to the question....come on BW you are better than this...........

bigtex wrote:come on BW you are better than this...........

You'd be better served focusing that advice on your own parents and coaches like DallasGirl and Honor system...

bwgophers wrote:

bigtex wrote:come on BW you are better than this...........

You'd be better served focusing that advice on your own parents and coaches like DallasGirl and Honor system...

I have no idea what you are talking about.  I don't recall seeing any post from DallasGirl and I do not know who Honor System is (but obviously someone with rooting interest in our team).  From what I recall from the HS post he/she basically questioned the integrity of the FBR preparer- nothing more or less.  You/FBR say its legit- so be it.  

And as to our parents, to my knowledge I have yet to see a post from a parent of ours that would require "focus".  Neither I nor my 07 daughter were in Cali with the team and I have not talked to any of our parents/coaches that were there, so cannot begin to speak to any incident you might be implying.

So back to what I know...I know rooting against NTX teams (9 year olds at that) makes little sense. In fact, I cannot even imagine keeping up with 9 year old soccer unless I had a daughter in the age group, but hey I guess if that is how you get your kicks…………enjoy!

bigtex wrote:

bwgophers wrote:

bigtex wrote:come on BW you are better than this...........

You'd be better served focusing that advice on your own parents and coaches like DallasGirl and Honor system...

I have no idea what you are talking about.  I don't recall seeing any post from DallasGirl and I do not know who Honor System is (but obviously someone with rooting interest in our team).  From what I recall from the HS post he/she basically questioned the integrity of the FBR preparer- nothing more or less.  You/FBR say its legit- so be it.  

And as to our parents, to my knowledge I have yet to see a post from a parent of ours that would require "focus".  Neither I nor my 07 daughter were in Cali with the team and I have not talked to any of our parents/coaches that were there, so cannot begin to speak to any incident you might be implying.

So back to what I know...I know rooting against NTX teams (9 year olds at that) makes little sense. In fact, I cannot even imagine keeping up with 9 year old soccer unless I had a daughter in the age group, but hey I guess if that is how you get your kicks…………enjoy!

This has nothing to do with the kids, whom I sure played their hearts out, gave their best efforts, and represented NTX well.

This has everything to do with parents and coaches of these girls going on this forum and the SoCal forum and talking smack about their team and calling out other teams.  It's bad form, and reflects poorly on the team, club, and NTX soccer in general.  I'm pretty sure that if you go back through my extensive posting history, you'll find I've got a track record of calling out those that go overboard with braggadocio, independent of age group, team, or club.  Heck, every post I've made on here for the past couple of years contains a warning to those who are going to talk smack on here.

As for Honor System, I'm pretty sure you know who that is, but I'll send you some details via PM to confirm it. You can decide whether it may be prudent to suggest that he holds his tongue in the future (or at least doesn't leave a trail of fresh bread crumbs as to his identity).

Oh... and a bit disingenuous for you to call me out for commenting about this age group, considering you were the first one to PM me 3-4 months back to specifically ask me to get involved and start paying attention to the '07's.

As you well know my PM to you was regarding a comment made by FBR 07 regarding your involvement and that you had reviewed the 07 FBR and made tier recommendation. I never asked you to get involved in 07 FBR, so now you are taking liberties with the truth-disappointing.

As far as HS- glad you think you know who it is and as I said I have no idea- so don't know if you are right or wrong. But based on your own claim it is not a parent- so still not seeing the parent connection you continue to claim. In regards to Socal forum…please….I don’t follow that board and have no interest in following another 9 year old girls soccer forum (kind of wish I never heard about this one). I will let you be the expert on that forum, given you apparently have crazy amounts of time and all knowing soccer forum gifts that allow you to know what anonymous poster is a parent, troll or other. Who could possibly compete with that. You win.

bigtex wrote:As you well know my PM to you was regarding a comment made by FBR 07 regarding your involvement and that you had reviewed the 07 FBR and made tier recommendation.  I never asked you to get involved in 07 FBR, so now you are taking liberties with the truth-disappointing.

As far as HS- glad you think you know who it is and as I said I have no idea- so don't know if you are right or wrong.  But based on your own claim it is not a parent- so still not seeing the parent connection you continue to claim.  In regards to Socal forum…please….I don’t follow that board and have no interest in following another 9 year old girls soccer forum (kind of wish I never heard about this one).  I will let you be the expert on that forum, given you apparently have crazy amounts of time and all knowing soccer forum gifts that allow you to know what anonymous poster is a parent, troll or other. Who could possibly compete with that.  You win.

This crap is hillarious. Please dont stop, please... making this monday fly by...

I've always thought bw was an agent of the SoCal board. After he destroys the legitimacy of the 07 fbr he will move on to the 08s. This must be stopped and he must be brought to justice.

soccerjack wrote:I've always thought bw was an agent of the SoCal board. After he destroys the legitimacy of the 07 fbr he will move on to the 08s. This must be stopped and he must be brought to justice.

Cha... like totally, bra...