Re: Teams Poised to Move Up? Place your Bets

by the7wolf 29/11/11, 10:13 pm

soccermom13 wrote:
Balotelli Fan wrote:Sting is on the way up. By the time LH gets here Sting will be in a battle with Bennett and South for the number 4 spot. Sting is a big proud club that boasts multiple National Champions. Come ECNL time they will really put something together. Who wouldn't want to be a Sting ECNL starter. Dont say I didn't warn you!

wow.. you sound cocky.. just like Balotelli...
not judging.. love Balotelli and the rest of the BLUES!!

If you like even John Terry, I'm going to come round your house and offload half a ton of squirrel poop (that I have been storing for the occasion) on your doorstep! Twisted Evil

by Bierluva 29/11/11, 10:22 pm

wolf2.0 wrote:
soccermom13 wrote:
Balotelli Fan wrote:Sting is on the way up. By the time LH gets here Sting will be in a battle with Bennett and South for the number 4 spot. Sting is a big proud club that boasts multiple National Champions. Come ECNL time they will really put something together. Who wouldn't want to be a Sting ECNL starter. Dont say I didn't warn you!

wow.. you sound cocky.. just like Balotelli...
not judging.. love Balotelli and the rest of the BLUES!!

If you like even John Terry, I'm going to come round your house and offload half a ton of squirrel poop (that I have been storing for the occasion) on your doorstep!

He has a lot....

Teams Poised to Move Up? Place your Bets - Page 2 Flying_squirrel_poop_main

by the7wolf 29/11/11, 10:40 pm

Bierluva wrote:
wolf2.0 wrote:
soccermom13 wrote:
Balotelli Fan wrote:Sting is on the way up. By the time LH gets here Sting will be in a battle with Bennett and South for the number 4 spot. Sting is a big proud club that boasts multiple National Champions. Come ECNL time they will really put something together. Who wouldn't want to be a Sting ECNL starter. Dont say I didn't warn you!

wow.. you sound cocky.. just like Balotelli...
not judging.. love Balotelli and the rest of the BLUES!!

If you like even John Terry, I'm going to come round your house and offload half a ton of squirrel poop (that I have been storing for the occasion) on your doorstep!

He has a lot....

It's... beautiful Shocked

by soccermom13 30/11/11, 07:51 am

wolf2.0 wrote:
soccermom13 wrote:
Balotelli Fan wrote:Sting is on the way up. By the time LH gets here Sting will be in a battle with Bennett and South for the number 4 spot. Sting is a big proud club that boasts multiple National Champions. Come ECNL time they will really put something together. Who wouldn't want to be a Sting ECNL starter. Dont say I didn't warn you!

wow.. you sound cocky.. just like Balotelli...
not judging.. love Balotelli and the rest of the BLUES!!

If you like even John Terry, I'm going to come round your house and offload half a ton of squirrel poop (that I have been storing for the occasion) on your doorstep!

not a Chelsea supporter... City.. hence like Balotelli and he rest of the Blues... MAN CITY to make it clear.. so please save your squirel poo for the Chelsea rent boys,, thank you for your concern

by deepthoughts 30/11/11, 03:38 pm

I decided to go with volume - fortune favors the bold, right?

My picks for moving up significantly are:
Sting Searls
Solar Gio
Fever White Penn
Dallas Texans Fort Worth Powell
Solar 02 Stark
XLR8
Sting Parker
Solar Jones

by GOALLLLL! 30/11/11, 04:01 pm

Texas Spirit
Sting East
Sting Searls

by Guest 30/11/11, 10:56 pm

XLR8
FCD Kang
Odyssey Blue (currently not listed so just getting ranked will be a win....right?)
Solar Jones
Wildcard pick- Fever Red- looked really good the last time I saw them. But, moving up to the 5 slot from the 10 spot, means moving ahead of some good teams. They have the defense to do it, but can the offense step it up? Any Fever parents want to predict an offensive surge?

by Guest 30/11/11, 11:31 pm

ok i'll take the bait. not sure if i see fever moving up the ladder real soon for two reasons. first, to do so would require knocking off #s 1, 2, and 3 at least. since we learned from 02 dad on the other thread that fever has the #1 SOS, beating anyone less really wont help much. at this time i dont see them beating the top 3. and do not forecast an offensive surge.

on the other hand, your talking about going from 5 to 10 and depending on who you ask, theyre already 5. they've got an even w/l/d record with dt bennet. i think they have a loss and tie to dynamo but havent played them for a year and a half. beat rangel. and lost to FCD'feeters on labor day and tied D'feeters in PTCL.

so mathmatically the way the rankings work i dont see it playing out.

disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

by Guest 01/12/11, 12:01 am

bobmac15 wrote:ok i'll take the bait. not sure if i see fever moving up the ladder real soon for two reasons. first, to do so would require knocking off #s 1, 2, and 3 at least. since we learned from 02 dad on the other thread that fever has the #1 SOS, beating anyone less really wont help much. at this time i dont see them beating the top 3. and do not forecast an offensive surge.

on the other hand, your talking about going from 5 to 10 and depending on who you ask, theyre already 5. they've got an even w/l/d record with dt bennet. i think they have a loss and tie to dynamo but havent played them for a year and a half. beat rangel. and lost to FCD'feeters on labor day and tied D'feeters in PTCL.

so mathmatically the way the rankings work i dont see it playing out.

disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

I agree that "some" people already have them ranked higher, and that is why I picked them as a wild card. But I don't understand you're theory on them only moving up if they beat the top 3 teams. Don't they just have to beat anyone ranked ahead of them, to move up. Right now they are at 10. If they beat # 9 or better, they should move up. Am I wrong?

by deepthoughts 01/12/11, 06:23 am

passthedarnball wrote:
bobmac15 wrote:...
disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

I agree that "some" people already have them ranked higher, and that is why I picked them as a wild card. But I don't understand you're theory on them only moving up if they beat the top 3 teams. Don't they just have to beat anyone ranked ahead of them, to move up. Right now they are at 10. If they beat # 9 or better, they should move up. Am I wrong?

I think this is a perfect question to 02Dad. Under what conditions could Fever move up from 10th in FBR to 5th? Would it require the teams in 5th through 10th to lose to Tier 2 teams (and how low a ranking would those teams have to have, more or less)? Or is Fever in charge of their own destiny? How many games are needed to make a significant jump?

This scenario should help people understand FBR better.

Likewise, I might find out that my picking Sting Searls ranked #13 was foolish, because it might be nearly just as hard for them to climb 5 as it is for Fever Red.

by deepthoughts 01/12/11, 06:32 am

passthedarnball wrote:
Odyssey Blue (currently not listed so just getting ranked will be a win....right?)

Good question. No, just getting ranked from not ranked seems wrong. Lets say if a team is not ranked, they would have to land in #30th or better (since that is the coveted make it into LHGCL delineation). Do you want to keep your Odyssey Blue pick or withdraw it?

02Dad or bwgophers could answer this - if an unranked team just joins a league with tough competition, they are likely to place pretty high up in the FBR world if they can simply manage a couple of draws, yes? The strength of schedule is a huge factor, right?

What would be a fair way to allow passthedarnball to play Odyssey Blue in this contest? Is my proposed #30 too difficult?

by Guest 01/12/11, 08:18 am

deepthoughts wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
Odyssey Blue (currently not listed so just getting ranked will be a win....right?)

Good question. No, just getting ranked from not ranked seems wrong. Lets say if a team is not ranked, they would have to land in #30th or better (since that is the coveted make it into LHGCL delineation). Do you want to keep your Odyssey Blue pick or withdraw it?

02Dad or bwgophers could answer this - if an unranked team just joins a league with tough competition, they are likely to place pretty high up in the FBR world if they can simply manage a couple of draws, yes? The strength of schedule is a huge factor, right?

What would be a fair way to allow passthedarnball to play Odyssey Blue in this contest? Is my proposed #30 too difficult?

I think you have to go off of the current FBR, since that is when this experiment started. If Odyssey comes in at #46 or better, cha-ching! IMO. To have to pick a team in the top 30 means people may have already picked teams that have to move up way more than 5 spots to win and that was not in your original rules.

by deepthoughts 01/12/11, 09:53 am

passthedarnball wrote:
deepthoughts wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
Odyssey Blue (currently not listed so just getting ranked will be a win....right?)

Good question. No, just getting ranked from not ranked seems wrong. Lets say if a team is not ranked, they would have to land in #30th or better (since that is the coveted make it into LHGCL delineation). Do you want to keep your Odyssey Blue pick or withdraw it?

02Dad or bwgophers could answer this - if an unranked team just joins a league with tough competition, they are likely to place pretty high up in the FBR world if they can simply manage a couple of draws, yes? The strength of schedule is a huge factor, right?

What would be a fair way to allow passthedarnball to play Odyssey Blue in this contest? Is my proposed #30 too difficult?

I think you have to go off of the current FBR, since that is when this experiment started. If Odyssey comes in at #46 or better, cha-ching! IMO. To have to pick a team in the top 30 means people may have already picked teams that have to move up way more than 5 spots to win and that was not in your original rules.

Well, where a team enters the ranking is a massive MYSTERY to me.

For example, in the previous FBR http://www.txsoccer.net/t9024-updated-02g-fbr-11-15-2011 there was no DT Texans Fort Worth Powell (0 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw), but then in the current 11-25-2011 FBR http://www.txsoccer.net/t9101-updated-fbr-11-25-11 - BAMM! the DTFW team pops in in 29th place, much to the chagrin of Sting Parker at #35 with a winning record.

The 11-15-2011 FBR itself introduced a number of new teams, some of them quite highly ranked like GSSC Thunder (although their 3 wins and 2 draws might have been against ranked teams and therefore deserves a better slot that Sting Parker).

02Dad, please illuminate the realities of FBR ranking first time placement if you can.

I just don't like saying an off-the-ranking team landing in #46 counts. For one thing, few people would even know what OdyBlue is, making it less fair. My latest thinking is that picking teams not on the list now makes it kind of unfair. Comments?

by tmcc 01/12/11, 10:46 am

passthedarnball wrote:XLR8
FCD Kang
Odyssey Blue (currently not listed so just getting ranked will be a win....right?)
Solar Jones
Wildcard pick- Fever Red- looked really good the last time I saw them. But, moving up to the 5 slot from the 10 spot, means moving ahead of some good teams. They have the defense to do it, but can the offense step it up? Any Fever parents want to predict an offensive surge?

Like bobmac says, not sure if it is mathmatically possible for Fever Red to move up 5 spots, but if it is, I think they are "poised" to do it. South jumped up with one big win, why couldn't that happen for Fever Red? Unlike bobmac however, I think the offense will have a surge. The girls up top are working hard and getting better. What we have to remember is that there won't be too many 5 to 0 games between the top 15 teams or so. So, averaging 2 goals a game would be an offensive surge for Fever and probably the average across the board. Goals are much harder to come by as the girls get older and get better.

by Guest 01/12/11, 12:52 pm

No offense to the offense tmcc I love you

by tmcc 01/12/11, 01:06 pm

bobmac15 wrote:No offense to the offense tmcc

None taken. I know we didn't score enough.

by coachr 01/12/11, 01:33 pm

deepthoughts wrote:If you have been reading the rather expansive FBR 11-25-2011 discussion, there is a lot of reasons why FBR is not that accurate but interesting as a general ranking tool to figure out the competitive neighborhood of a specific team.

So here is the question/topic for this thread: Predict the teams that will move up 5 or more ranking slots by the end of the regular PT/SDL/EAL Spring season.

The person that wins the contest will have serious bragging rights going into the pre-QT tournament season. To make it fair, predictions must be made by December 10th.

What are your best bets? You get 3 points for a team that makes the 5 position or more improvement, 1 point if your pick moves up 3 or 4 slots, -1 points for a team that stays the same or moves up only 1 or 2 slots, and -3 points for a pick that actually moves down from their 11-25-2011 ranking.

Lastly, to be in the contest, you must pick a minimum of 3 teams but can pick more. (modification to prevent voting only with your heart for your own DD's team).

If enough people participate, this should result in an interesting list of teams poised to get a lot better going into the last season before qualifying for Lake Highlands. It should let people think outside the box of their own team and think about teams that impressed them when they played them.

I checked NTSSA, usclubsoccer, etc and didn't see any bans on betting so you may continue to use your thread title.

by 02Dad 01/12/11, 04:20 pm

deepthoughts wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
bobmac15 wrote:...
disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

I agree that "some" people already have them ranked higher, and that is why I picked them as a wild card. But I don't understand you're theory on them only moving up if they beat the top 3 teams. Don't they just have to beat anyone ranked ahead of them, to move up. Right now they are at 10. If they beat # 9 or better, they should move up. Am I wrong?

I think this is a perfect question to 02Dad. Under what conditions could Fever move up from 10th in FBR to 5th? Would it require the teams in 5th through 10th to lose to Tier 2 teams (and how low a ranking would those teams have to have, more or less)? Or is Fever in charge of their own destiny? How many games are needed to make a significant jump?

This scenario should help people understand FBR better.

Likewise, I might find out that my picking Sting Searls ranked #13 was foolish, because it might be nearly just as hard for them to climb 5 as it is for Fever Red.

Fever is propped up in FBR by their SOS but they are dragged way down because of their lack of winning games...

The top 5 teams have these records:

1) 16-2-3
2) 15-1-2
3) 17-8-1
4) 12-2-1
5) 13-8-3
...
...
10) While Fever is 4-7-1.

I did some experimenting and have found if Fever plays the 7 teams below and wins every game 3-0... they will slide in to the 5th spot.

Dynamo
LP Rangel
D'Feeters
FCD Renfro
SRSA
Higg
FCD Premier

Remember that while Fever does in fact have the #1 SOS, it's only this way by a very small margin. The next 5 in SOS behind Fever is FCD Premier, Higg, SRSA, TFC Elite,Bennett All very close.

So with the SOS being almost equal between Fever and these other top teams, it comes down to the fact that teams with a significant number of W's under their belt will come out on top.

by tmcc 01/12/11, 04:52 pm

O2dad. I think you just opened a whole can of worms that you might want to close really fast. I appreciate your computations for Fever Red and hope you don't have to do it for all of the 02 teams.

by Guest 02/12/11, 10:04 am

02Dad wrote:
deepthoughts wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
bobmac15 wrote:...
disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

I agree that "some" people already have them ranked higher, and that is why I picked them as a wild card. But I don't understand you're theory on them only moving up if they beat the top 3 teams. Don't they just have to beat anyone ranked ahead of them, to move up. Right now they are at 10. If they beat # 9 or better, they should move up. Am I wrong?

I think this is a perfect question to 02Dad. Under what conditions could Fever move up from 10th in FBR to 5th? Would it require the teams in 5th through 10th to lose to Tier 2 teams (and how low a ranking would those teams have to have, more or less)? Or is Fever in charge of their own destiny? How many games are needed to make a significant jump?

This scenario should help people understand FBR better.

Likewise, I might find out that my picking Sting Searls ranked #13 was foolish, because it might be nearly just as hard for them to climb 5 as it is for Fever Red.

Fever is propped up in FBR by their SOS but they are dragged way down because of their lack of winning games...

The top 5 teams have these records:

1) 16-2-3
2) 15-1-2
3) 17-8-1
4) 12-2-1
5) 13-8-3
...
...
10) While Fever is 4-7-1.

I did some experimenting and have found if Fever plays the 7 teams below and wins every game 3-0... they will slide in to the 5th spot.

Dynamo
LP Rangel
D'Feeters
FCD Renfro
SRSA
Higg
FCD Premier

Remember that while Fever does in fact have the #1 SOS, it's only this way by a very small margin. The next 5 in SOS behind Fever is FCD Premier, Higg, SRSA, TFC Elite,Bennett All very close.

So with the SOS being almost equal between Fever and these other top teams, it comes down to the fact that teams with a significant number of W's under their belt will come out on top.

Just reread this, when you say "below them" did you actually mean teams ranked above them? Because the teams you listed are all above Fever.

by mcik17 02/12/11, 10:14 am

passthedarnball wrote:
02Dad wrote:
deepthoughts wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
bobmac15 wrote:...
disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

I agree that "some" people already have them ranked higher, and that is why I picked them as a wild card. But I don't understand you're theory on them only moving up if they beat the top 3 teams. Don't they just have to beat anyone ranked ahead of them, to move up. Right now they are at 10. If they beat # 9 or better, they should move up. Am I wrong?

I think this is a perfect question to 02Dad. Under what conditions could Fever move up from 10th in FBR to 5th? Would it require the teams in 5th through 10th to lose to Tier 2 teams (and how low a ranking would those teams have to have, more or less)? Or is Fever in charge of their own destiny? How many games are needed to make a significant jump?

This scenario should help people understand FBR better.

Likewise, I might find out that my picking Sting Searls ranked #13 was foolish, because it might be nearly just as hard for them to climb 5 as it is for Fever Red.

Fever is propped up in FBR by their SOS but they are dragged way down because of their lack of winning games...

The top 5 teams have these records:

1) 16-2-3
2) 15-1-2
3) 17-8-1
4) 12-2-1
5) 13-8-3
...
...
10) While Fever is 4-7-1.

I did some experimenting and have found if Fever plays the 7 teams below and wins every game 3-0... they will slide in to the 5th spot.

Dynamo
LP Rangel
D'Feeters
FCD Renfro
SRSA
Higg
FCD Premier

Remember that while Fever does in fact have the #1 SOS, it's only this way by a very small margin. The next 5 in SOS behind Fever is FCD Premier, Higg, SRSA, TFC Elite,Bennett All very close.

So with the SOS being almost equal between Fever and these other top teams, it comes down to the fact that teams with a significant number of W's under their belt will come out on top.

Just reread this, when you say "below them" did you actually mean teams ranked above them? Because the teams you listed are all above Fever.

I think he means literally below....as in the teams he is about to type.

by tmcc 02/12/11, 10:22 am

passthedarnball wrote:
02Dad wrote:
deepthoughts wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
bobmac15 wrote:...
disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

I agree that "some" people already have them ranked higher, and that is why I picked them as a wild card. But I don't understand you're theory on them only moving up if they beat the top 3 teams. Don't they just have to beat anyone ranked ahead of them, to move up. Right now they are at 10. If they beat # 9 or better, they should move up. Am I wrong?

I think this is a perfect question to 02Dad. Under what conditions could Fever move up from 10th in FBR to 5th? Would it require the teams in 5th through 10th to lose to Tier 2 teams (and how low a ranking would those teams have to have, more or less)? Or is Fever in charge of their own destiny? How many games are needed to make a significant jump?

This scenario should help people understand FBR better.

Likewise, I might find out that my picking Sting Searls ranked #13 was foolish, because it might be nearly just as hard for them to climb 5 as it is for Fever Red.

Fever is propped up in FBR by their SOS but they are dragged way down because of their lack of winning games...

The top 5 teams have these records:

1) 16-2-3
2) 15-1-2
3) 17-8-1
4) 12-2-1
5) 13-8-3
...
...
10) While Fever is 4-7-1.

I did some experimenting and have found if Fever plays the 7 teams below and wins every game 3-0... they will slide in to the 5th spot.

Dynamo
LP Rangel
D'Feeters
FCD Renfro
SRSA
Higg
FCD Premier

Remember that while Fever does in fact have the #1 SOS, it's only this way by a very small margin. The next 5 in SOS behind Fever is FCD Premier, Higg, SRSA, TFC Elite,Bennett All very close.

So with the SOS being almost equal between Fever and these other top teams, it comes down to the fact that teams with a significant number of W's under their belt will come out on top.

Just reread this, when you say "below them" did you actually mean teams ranked above them? Because the teams you listed are all above Fever.

I was wondering the same thing. I don't understand the formulas and all the scientific stuff. But I think I understand common sense.

For instance, 2 FBR rankings ago, listed here: http://www.txsoccer.net/t9024-updated-02g-fbr-11-15-2011 --Fever Red was ranked 11th. Without playing a single game, the newest ranking has them moved up one spot to 10. So how can you move up a spot without playing, but move up only 5 spots when you beat all the teams ranked above you 3 to 0?

O2dad, don't even go through the trouble of trying to explain it to me. Your hard work is much appreciated and enjoyed. It is what it is and I am good with that. I hope Fever can win 1/3 of those games 3 to 0 and frustrate the rest.

by Guest 02/12/11, 10:26 am

mcik17 wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
02Dad wrote:
deepthoughts wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
bobmac15 wrote:...
disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

I agree that "some" people already have them ranked higher, and that is why I picked them as a wild card. But I don't understand you're theory on them only moving up if they beat the top 3 teams. Don't they just have to beat anyone ranked ahead of them, to move up. Right now they are at 10. If they beat # 9 or better, they should move up. Am I wrong?

I think this is a perfect question to 02Dad. Under what conditions could Fever move up from 10th in FBR to 5th? Would it require the teams in 5th through 10th to lose to Tier 2 teams (and how low a ranking would those teams have to have, more or less)? Or is Fever in charge of their own destiny? How many games are needed to make a significant jump?

Got it.

Wow. Good luck with that one Fever Red.

This scenario should help people understand FBR better.

Likewise, I might find out that my picking Sting Searls ranked #13 was foolish, because it might be nearly just as hard for them to climb 5 as it is for Fever Red.

Fever is propped up in FBR by their SOS but they are dragged way down because of their lack of winning games...

The top 5 teams have these records:

1) 16-2-3
2) 15-1-2
3) 17-8-1
4) 12-2-1
5) 13-8-3
...
...
10) While Fever is 4-7-1.

I did some experimenting and have found if Fever plays the 7 teams below and wins every game 3-0... they will slide in to the 5th spot.

Dynamo
LP Rangel
D'Feeters
FCD Renfro
SRSA
Higg
FCD Premier

Remember that while Fever does in fact have the #1 SOS, it's only this way by a very small margin. The next 5 in SOS behind Fever is FCD Premier, Higg, SRSA, TFC Elite,Bennett All very close.

So with the SOS being almost equal between Fever and these other top teams, it comes down to the fact that teams with a significant number of W's under their belt will come out on top.

Just reread this, when you say "below them" did you actually mean teams ranked above them? Because the teams you listed are all above Fever.

I think he means literally below....as in the teams he is about to type.

Got it. Wow, good luck with that Fever Red. Tough hill to climb.

by 02Dad 02/12/11, 10:45 am

passthedarnball wrote:
mcik17 wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
02Dad wrote:
deepthoughts wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
bobmac15 wrote:...
disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

I agree that "some" people already have them ranked higher, and that is why I picked them as a wild card. But I don't understand you're theory on them only moving up if they beat the top 3 teams. Don't they just have to beat anyone ranked ahead of them, to move up. Right now they are at 10. If they beat # 9 or better, they should move up. Am I wrong?

I think this is a perfect question to 02Dad. Under what conditions could Fever move up from 10th in FBR to 5th? Would it require the teams in 5th through 10th to lose to Tier 2 teams (and how low a ranking would those teams have to have, more or less)? Or is Fever in charge of their own destiny? How many games are needed to make a significant jump?

Got it.

Wow. Good luck with that one Fever Red.

This scenario should help people understand FBR better.

Likewise, I might find out that my picking Sting Searls ranked #13 was foolish, because it might be nearly just as hard for them to climb 5 as it is for Fever Red.

Fever is propped up in FBR by their SOS but they are dragged way down because of their lack of winning games...

The top 5 teams have these records:

1) 16-2-3
2) 15-1-2
3) 17-8-1
4) 12-2-1
5) 13-8-3
...
...
10) While Fever is 4-7-1.

I did some experimenting and have found if Fever plays the 7 teams below and wins every game 3-0... they will slide in to the 5th spot.

Dynamo
LP Rangel
D'Feeters
FCD Renfro
SRSA
Higg
FCD Premier

Remember that while Fever does in fact have the #1 SOS, it's only this way by a very small margin. The next 5 in SOS behind Fever is FCD Premier, Higg, SRSA, TFC Elite,Bennett All very close.

So with the SOS being almost equal between Fever and these other top teams, it comes down to the fact that teams with a significant number of W's under their belt will come out on top.

Just reread this, when you say "below them" did you actually mean teams ranked above them? Because the teams you listed are all above Fever.

I think he means literally below....as in the teams he is about to type.

Got it. Wow, good luck with that Fever Red. Tough hill to climb.

Yes, I meant literally below.

by Guest 02/12/11, 11:22 am

passthedarnball wrote:
mcik17 wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
02Dad wrote:
deepthoughts wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
bobmac15 wrote:...
disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

I agree that "some" people already have them ranked higher, and that is why I picked them as a wild card. But I don't understand you're theory on them only moving up if they beat the top 3 teams. Don't they just have to beat anyone ranked ahead of them, to move up. Right now they are at 10. If they beat # 9 or better, they should move up. Am I wrong?

I think this is a perfect question to 02Dad. Under what conditions could Fever move up from 10th in FBR to 5th? Would it require the teams in 5th through 10th to lose to Tier 2 teams (and how low a ranking would those teams have to have, more or less)? Or is Fever in charge of their own destiny? How many games are needed to make a significant jump?

Got it.

Wow. Good luck with that one Fever Red.

This scenario should help people understand FBR better.

Likewise, I might find out that my picking Sting Searls ranked #13 was foolish, because it might be nearly just as hard for them to climb 5 as it is for Fever Red.

Fever is propped up in FBR by their SOS but they are dragged way down because of their lack of winning games...

The top 5 teams have these records:

1) 16-2-3
2) 15-1-2
3) 17-8-1
4) 12-2-1
5) 13-8-3
...
...
10) While Fever is 4-7-1.

I did some experimenting and have found if Fever plays the 7 teams below and wins every game 3-0... they will slide in to the 5th spot.

Dynamo
LP Rangel
D'Feeters
FCD Renfro
SRSA
Higg
FCD Premier

Remember that while Fever does in fact have the #1 SOS, it's only this way by a very small margin. The next 5 in SOS behind Fever is FCD Premier, Higg, SRSA, TFC Elite,Bennett All very close.

So with the SOS being almost equal between Fever and these other top teams, it comes down to the fact that teams with a significant number of W's under their belt will come out on top.

Just reread this, when you say "below them" did you actually mean teams ranked above them? Because the teams you listed are all above Fever.

I think he means literally below....as in the teams he is about to type.

Got it. Wow, good luck with that Fever Red. Tough hill to climb.

At the risk of throwing a major wrench into this discussion, one thing I haven't seen mentioned yet that will be a factor in teams moving up or down, is whether or not 02Dad plans to start culling older results from the rankings database.

If you cull older results over time, then a team that is improving with time will respond and move up the rankings more quickly, and teams staying stagnant or getting weaker over time will move down the rankings more quickly.

Not sure if 02Dad took anything like that into account when he posted his Fever Red scenario above.

by 02Dad 02/12/11, 11:31 am

bwgophers wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
mcik17 wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
02Dad wrote:
deepthoughts wrote:
passthedarnball wrote:
bobmac15 wrote:...
disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

I agree that "some" people already have them ranked higher, and that is why I picked them as a wild card. But I don't understand you're theory on them only moving up if they beat the top 3 teams. Don't they just have to beat anyone ranked ahead of them, to move up. Right now they are at 10. If they beat # 9 or better, they should move up. Am I wrong?

I think this is a perfect question to 02Dad. Under what conditions could Fever move up from 10th in FBR to 5th? Would it require the teams in 5th through 10th to lose to Tier 2 teams (and how low a ranking would those teams have to have, more or less)? Or is Fever in charge of their own destiny? How many games are needed to make a significant jump?

Got it.

Wow. Good luck with that one Fever Red.

This scenario should help people understand FBR better.

Likewise, I might find out that my picking Sting Searls ranked #13 was foolish, because it might be nearly just as hard for them to climb 5 as it is for Fever Red.

Fever is propped up in FBR by their SOS but they are dragged way down because of their lack of winning games...

The top 5 teams have these records:

1) 16-2-3
2) 15-1-2
3) 17-8-1
4) 12-2-1
5) 13-8-3
...
...
10) While Fever is 4-7-1.

I did some experimenting and have found if Fever plays the 7 teams below and wins every game 3-0... they will slide in to the 5th spot.

Dynamo
LP Rangel
D'Feeters
FCD Renfro
SRSA
Higg
FCD Premier

Remember that while Fever does in fact have the #1 SOS, it's only this way by a very small margin. The next 5 in SOS behind Fever is FCD Premier, Higg, SRSA, TFC Elite,Bennett All very close.

So with the SOS being almost equal between Fever and these other top teams, it comes down to the fact that teams with a significant number of W's under their belt will come out on top.

Just reread this, when you say "below them" did you actually mean teams ranked above them? Because the teams you listed are all above Fever.

I think he means literally below....as in the teams he is about to type.

Got it. Wow, good luck with that Fever Red. Tough hill to climb.

At the risk of throwing a major wrench into this discussion, one thing I haven't seen mentioned yet that will be a factor in teams moving up or down, is whether or not 02Dad plans to start culling older results from the rankings database.

If you cull older results over time, then a team that is improving with time will respond and move up the rankings more quickly, and teams staying stagnant or getting weaker over time will move down the rankings more quickly.

Not sure if 02Dad took anything like that into account when he posted his Fever Red scenario above.

I have cut out old data once previously and will likely do so again before the Spring season.

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