Teams Poised to Move Up? Place your Bets

bwgophers wrote:

passthedarnball wrote:

mcik17 wrote:

passthedarnball wrote:

02Dad wrote:

deepthoughts wrote:

passthedarnball wrote:

bobmac15 wrote:...
disclaimer for 02dad - not doggin the rankings, just calling it the way the chips fall.

I agree that "some" people already have them ranked higher, and that is why I picked them as a wild card. But I don't understand you're theory on them only moving up if they beat the top 3 teams. Don't they just have to beat anyone ranked ahead of them, to move up. Right now they are at 10. If they beat # 9 or better, they should move up. Am I wrong?

I think this is a perfect question to 02Dad. Under what conditions could Fever move up from 10th in FBR to 5th? Would it require the teams in 5th through 10th to lose to Tier 2 teams (and how low a ranking would those teams have to have, more or less)? Or is Fever in charge of their own destiny? How many games are needed to make a significant jump?

Got it.

Wow. Good luck with that one Fever Red.

This scenario should help people understand FBR better.

Likewise, I might find out that my picking Sting Searls ranked #13 was foolish, because it might be nearly just as hard for them to climb 5 as it is for Fever Red.

Fever is propped up in FBR by their SOS but they are dragged way down because of their lack of winning games...

The top 5 teams have these records:

1) 16-2-3
2) 15-1-2
3) 17-8-1
4) 12-2-1
5) 13-8-3
...
...
10) While Fever is 4-7-1.

I did some experimenting and have found if Fever plays the 7 teams below and wins every game 3-0... they will slide in to the 5th spot.

Dynamo
LP Rangel
D'Feeters
FCD Renfro
SRSA
Higg
FCD Premier

Remember that while Fever does in fact have the #1 SOS, it's only this way by a very small margin. The next 5 in SOS behind Fever is FCD Premier, Higg, SRSA, TFC Elite,Bennett All very close.

So with the SOS being almost equal between Fever and these other top teams, it comes down to the fact that teams with a significant number of W's under their belt will come out on top.

Just reread this, when you say "below them" did you actually mean teams ranked above them? Because the teams you listed are all above Fever.

I think he means literally below....as in the teams he is about to type.

Got it. Wow, good luck with that Fever Red. Tough hill to climb.

At the risk of throwing a major wrench into this discussion, one thing I haven't seen mentioned yet that will be a factor in teams moving up or down, is whether or not 02Dad plans to start culling older results from the rankings database.

If you cull older results over time, then a team that is improving with time will respond and move up the rankings more quickly, and teams staying stagnant or getting weaker over time will move down the rankings more quickly.

Not sure if 02Dad took anything like that into account when he posted his Fever Red scenario above.

deepthoughts wrote:Seems to me that the next FBR posting would bring an end to putting in your bets for the moving-up-contest, since that would give late comers an unfair advantage.

02Dad, what's your projected date for the next FBR? That would put a good deadline on the cut-off.

deepthoughts wrote:If you have been reading the rather expansive FBR 11-25-2011 discussion, there is a lot of reasons why FBR is not that accurate but interesting as a general ranking tool to figure out the competitive neighborhood of a specific team.

So here is the question/topic for this thread: Predict the teams that will move up 5 or more ranking slots by the end of the regular PT/SDL/EAL Spring season.

The person that wins the contest will have serious bragging rights going into the pre-QT tournament season.

What are your best bets? You get 3 points for a team that makes the 5 position or more improvement, 1 point if your pick moves up 3 or 4 slots, -1 points for a team that stays the same or moves up only 1 or 2 slots, and -3 points for a pick that actually moves down from their 11-25-2011 ranking.

Lastly, to be in the contest, you must pick a minimum of 3 teams but can pick more. (modification to prevent voting only with your heart for your own DD's team).

You can't pick a team that is not in the top 50 on the 11-25 FBR.

If enough people participate, this should result in an interesting list of teams poised to get a lot better going into the last season before qualifying for Lake Highlands. It should let people think outside the box of their own team and think about teams that impressed them when they played them.

Balotelli Fan wrote:Webb will take a step back this spring and going into select. They rely to heavily on one player. Long ball is nice but not everytime. They will pull you into a physical dog fight but a good passing/possession team can win out. As the girls get older this will come to fruition.

jj4mel wrote:

Balotelli Fan wrote:Webb will take a step back this spring and going into select. They rely to heavily on one player. Long ball is nice but not everytime. They will pull you into a physical dog fight but a good passing/possession team can win out. As the girls get older this will come to fruition.

You would be surprised what type of training this team has endured in the offseason. I believe they will do just fine and remain in the top 3.

imasoccerfreak wrote:Wondering what will happen if one-three teams in the mid-rankings (like #20-#30ish)fall apart and those girls disperse to other teams. I'm hearing FC Dallas rumors that I will not spread because I'm not sure how reliable they are. But if they're true, then some very unexpected jumps will happen this spring. Nothing that would affect the top ten, but could change who qualifies for D3. Since I have a D2/D3 quality player, that kind of makes me nervous. Has this happened in the past?

imasoccerfreak wrote:Wondering what will happen if one-three teams in the mid-rankings (like #20-#30ish)fall apart and those girls disperse to other teams. I'm hearing FC Dallas rumors that I will not spread because I'm not sure how reliable they are. But if they're true, then some very unexpected jumps will happen this spring. Nothing that would affect the top ten, but could change who qualifies for D3. Since I have a D2/D3 quality player, that kind of makes me nervous. Has this happened in the past?

passthedarnball wrote:

jj4mel wrote:

Balotelli Fan wrote:Webb will take a step back this spring and going into select. They rely to heavily on one player. Long ball is nice but not everytime. They will pull you into a physical dog fight but a good passing/possession team can win out. As the girls get older this will come to fruition.

You would be surprised what type of training this team has endured in the offseason. I believe they will do just fine and remain in the top 3.

Endured? That doesn't sound like much fun. I know they have lost some players and are poised to lose some more. I just hope the over training doesn't burn out or injure the dedicated players that are left. Too much, is too much.