QT Brackets are posted

soccerdad1969 wrote:Thanks Gophers for taking the time to do this for us parents. Its really helped keep me a crazed soccer parent (for better or worse) and I've enjoyed the rankings immensely. Hopefully Borussia will do as good a job with the 06's (and beyond?) but the results have shown that your work has been very accurate. I'm sure going to miss the weekly updates.

  

100% agree. Thank you.

Nothing_but_net wrote:

soccerdad1969 wrote:Thanks Gophers for taking the time to do this for us parents. Its really helped keep me a crazed soccer parent (for better or worse) and I've enjoyed the rankings immensely. Hopefully Borussia will do as good a job with the 06's (and beyond?) but the results have shown that your work has been very accurate. I'm sure going to miss the weekly updates.

  

100% agree. Thank you.

Ditto. It is good to see some solid analytics.

We pretty much know who the winners of each bracket are going to be......

But lets test everyone's knowledge of the other teams.....would anyone want to take a stab at the thier predictions for DIV 3?

SocDad wrote:We pretty much know who the winners of each bracket are going to be......

But lets test everyone's knowledge of the other teams.....would anyone want to take a stab at the thier predictions for DIV 3?

I bet I know there are a BUNCH that WANT to get into DIII...  My guess, as you get below #20 the diversity of the teams is going to shake up a LOT and will really depend on how each team ranks out after the first weekend...  some matchups may be more favorable then others. I'm going to bet, of the 32 teams that are left after week 1, there will be a couple surprises just like there likely will be in DI.

The more I look at the way they do this the more I am baffled.  Almost every team ranked in the top 25 would go through if they were seeded in the top 5.  It is a cakewalk for the teams seeded in the top 10.  Which is fine- they deserve to go through to D1, but we already know that based upon what they have done all year.  Why must they show up and destroy lesser teams?

It seems to me they should use FBR to place the top 10 into D1 automatically, then seed ranks 11-30 (or 40) into a tournament and take the top 10.

It just seems odd to not have teams of equal caliber playing each other (with some exceptions at the ends of the brackets where ranking wraps around)- but instead see who can beat up the lesser teams more??  Why are they judging teams against each other by how they play 3rd parties instead of having them play each other?

I get that a couple teams will founder and not beat a team they should, but for the most part this seems extremely inefficient.

soccerdad1969 wrote:Thanks Gophers for taking the time to do this for us parents. Its really helped keep me a crazed soccer parent (for better or worse) and I've enjoyed the rankings immensely. Hopefully Borussia will do as good a job with the 06's (and beyond?) but the results have shown that your work has been very accurate. I'm sure going to miss the weekly updates.

Yes Gophers... There is np doubt that the Rankings are used for QT Seedings.. It is not uncommon. LHGCL will not come to txsoccer for the Rankings directly or even at all. But like you mentioned they do reach out to the Clubs... That is where the rankings come in. Example: our 99 age group had the Cain 909 Rankings in Academy. I happen to know for sure that both Sting & Solar asked for the Cain 909 Rankings to turn over to LHGCL. I'm sure this goes on most, if not every year..

Agreed.

If LH is basically using FBR, then they are acknowledging its accuracy.

The real crime (and probably unintended consequences) of the new setup, would be for one of the top 2 teams in brackets like J - M score tons of goals, but give up a single goal to a 3rd or 4th seed (Mutiny, Cosmos, Harr and other certainly have the ability) - then lose a close 1-0 game in their finale.  They would have 19 points, which may not be enough to make D1.

Even if they have 20 - the assessment would be that they didn't win "big enough".

[quote="dreadpirateroberts"]The more I look at the way they do this the more I am baffled.  Almost every team ranked in the top 25 would go through if they were seeded in the top 5.  It is a cakewalk for the teams seeded in the top 10.  Which is fine- they deserve to go through to D1, but we already know that based upon what they have done all year.  Why must they show up and destroy lesser teams?

It seems to me they should use FBR to place the top 10 into D1 automatically, then seed ranks 11-30 (or 40) into a tournament and take the top 10.

It just seems odd to not have teams of equal caliber playing each other (with some exceptions at the ends of the brackets where ranking wraps around)- but instead see who can beat up the lesser teams more??  Why are they judging teams against each other by how they play 3rd parties instead of having them play each other?

I get that a couple teams will founder and not beat a team they should, but for the most part this seems extremely inefficient.[/quote]



I agree and would go one step farther. They should do away with the QT all together and just put the top 20 teams in the FBR in LHGCL and no reason to even play the QT. It really is a foregone conclusion most of the time.

Why don't they give a team options/choice??

Option 1:  Play the first weekend to see if they can make DIV 1

Option 2:  Skip DIV 1 and compete for a DIV 3 spot?

That way....the top ranked teams won't blow out the bottom ranked teams.
I would bet that teams 30-52 already know they are going to be playing the following weekend.  So outside of "Preparation" time, why not just sit it out, especially now with teams expected to run up the score....

Most of you are forgetting player movement.  You just can't assume a top 20 team will be the same year after year.  Just hand them a DI spot???

At least the first year, yes. I think the FBR has proven to be right to a tune of about 95% or something.

Lets see how many of the top 20 in the FBR this years don't make LHCL 1. I bet all 20 make it.

Son_ofa_Pitch wrote:Most of you are forgetting player movement.  You just can't assume a top 20 team will be the same year after year.  Just hand them a DI spot???

  

Yep.  And guess players.  Clubs would be tempted to have their "B" and "C" teams enter lots of May tournaments with guess players moved down from the "A" team.

FBR is close - but not perfect (of course, if you happen to have your dd on a team ranked 16-20 right now, you would really like this idea).

Top 10 teams are not nearly as impacted by the player movement (at least to fall out of the top 20).

Yes players move time to time....

But the stats are holding true...or at least with 90% accuracy and at U11.

Its like a round robin....top 10 team players move to other top 10 teams.  Yes there are a few exceptions...but for the most part.....were all just borrowing from one another, from 1 year to the next

So really the true test is in the 11-30 spots...thats where a ton of movement occurs or enough to make the dial move dramatically.

Unicorns wrote:  I bet all 20 make it.  

I'll take some of that action.

Unicorns wrote:At least the first year, yes.  I think the FBR has proven to be right to a tune of about 95% or something.  

Lets see how many of the top 20 in the FBR this years don't make LHCL 1.  I bet all 20 make it.  

Your estimates are 90% correct about 60% of the time.

FBR correctly picked 80% of the D1 and D3 teams last year - nowhere near your 95%.

SocDad wrote:
So really the true test is in the 11-30 spots...thats where a ton of movement occurs or enough to make the dial move dramatically.

Exactly- but they don't play each other.  Makes no sense to me.  If your team is ranked 21-30 you don't get to play a team ranked 11-20 to try to take their spot.

Well the seeding committee relied on FBR to the tune of 95% this year. They even have RASE as the #2 seed when they should be the #1 Seed.

The point is the FBR is the gold standard. LHGCL uses it, the parents use it, it is right a vast majority of the time so why not structure the league based upon it. No need for a QT.

soccerdad1969 wrote:Thanks Gophers for taking the time to do this for us parents. Its really helped keep me a crazed soccer parent (for better or worse) and I've enjoyed the rankings immensely. Hopefully Borussia will do as good a job with the 06's (and beyond?) but the results have shown that your work has been very accurate. I'm sure going to miss the weekly updates.

Sorry, but Im a bit more selfish than BW. It ends with the 06s for me. I dont know how many kids BW has, but I will have 3 soon, and 2 already heavily involved. If anyone else wishes to carry the torch beyond the 06s feel free to ask BW or me. I would defer to BW though for the insanely technical questions.

Unicorns wrote:Well the seeding committee relied on FBR to the tune of 95% this year.  They even have RASE as the #2 seed when they should be the #1 Seed.  

The point is the FBR is the gold standard.  LHGCL uses it, the parents use it, it is right a vast majority of the time so why not structure the league based upon it.   No need for a QT.

No need for QT???

IMO, the U11 QT was one the top 3 Tournaments my DD has played in...

More realistically, you have 52 teams in U11 QT this year, I think. I believe that is $800 per team... Can you say Almost 42 thousand dollars... QT ain't going nowhere until another League comes into DFW and pushes LHGLC down a notch or two

I could only pick 18 teams to make DI.  This new format is creating havoc on me.  Too many close games to call.  Goals Differential will be the determining factor on who advances.  I looked at each Bracket and speculated if each team in each Brackets can score enough max points to advance over teams in similar situation in other Brackets.

No disrespect to Lady Aztecs (Just an example).  If LP Elite 04 beats LA by 4 goals and LA defeats remaining teams in Bracket B, will LA have scored enough goals to offset the 4 goals deficit to advance into DI.  This will be played out in multiple Brackets.

Advance to DI in RED

Bracket A

1) TEXAS SPIRIT 04
2) LIVERPOOL 04G RAISBECK
3) STING NORTH 04 ANGELL
4) TEXAS SHOCK FC 04

Bracket B

1) LIVERPOOL 04G ELITE
2) LADY AZTECS FC 04
3) FC DALLAS 04G CENTRAL
4) ROCKWALL RFC '04G BLACK

Bracket C

1) DT 04 GIRLS SOUTH
2) STING WEST 04 WEST
3) ANDROMEDA FC 04G
4) AYSES 04 GIRLS GOLD

Bracket D

1) DT 04 GIRLS SCOTT
2) D’FEEETERS 04 WHITE
3) SPARTA FC 04G
4) KERNOW STORM FC 04G

Bracket E

1) D’FEETERS 04 BLACK
2) DALLAS KICKS 04 SC
3) DT 04 GIRLS WHITE DALLAS
4) AYSES 04 GIRLS BLACK

Bracket F

1) LIVERPOOL 04G OWEN
2) FC DALLAS 04G WHITE
3) FC PREMIER 04 GIRLS
4) INTERNATIONAL FC 04G

Bracket G

1) LIVERPOOL 04G PREMIER
2) DT 04G RED STARKS
3) GUNNERS 04
4) ANDROMEDA FC 04G WEST

Bracket H

1) STING '04 DONOVAN
2) SRFC 04G
3) TEXAS SPIRIT 04 RED
4) FC DALLAS 04G EAST BOYLES

Bracket I

1) STING EAST 04 CHACON
2) TEXAS SPIRIT 04G NORTH
3) NTFC 04G BLACK (FORMERLY AFC 04G)
4) FEVER UNITED 04G  PHIRI

Bracket J

1) ODYSSEY '04
2) GSSC THUNDER 04 GIRLS BLUE
3) STING HARR 04 DALLAS
4) EAST TEXAS UNITED FC 04

Bracket K

1) STING 04 GUZMAN
2) SOLAR CHELSEA 04
3) LP 04G ST.JOHN
4) CELTIC SC 04 MACPHERSON

Bracket L

1) MUSTANGS FC '04 LOPEZ
2) STING CENTRAL CUEVAS 04
3) DALLAS COSMOS 04G BLACK
4) FC DALLAS 04G CENTRAL WHITE

Bracket M

1) LIVERPOOL 04G REDKNAPP
2) FC DALLAS 04G PREMIER
3) MUTINY FC 04G
4) LIVERPOOL 04G CARRAGHER


Most of the teams I don't know much about or have seen to speculate on.   Have a go at it..

Unicorns wrote:Well the seeding committee relied on FBR to the tune of 95% this year.  They even have RASE as the #2 seed when they should be the #1 Seed.  

The point is the FBR is the gold standard.  LHGCL uses it, the parents use it, it is right a vast majority of the time so why not structure the league based upon it.   No need for a QT.

  

I think about half a dozen posters above explained exactly WHY you still need a qualifying tournament - but let me recap - guest players, player movement, the fact that FBR goes back to a time well before the current rosters were set (including May when most teams had guest players playing).

The fact that the seeding committee relied on it "95%" is only relevant as it "estimates" the position.  It has never been designed to place the exact position.  And even LH didn't solely rely on it.

The fact that it is not perfect is reflected in the 80% success rate last year in identifying the LH qualifiers.  Meaning it is remarkably close - but mis-judged 20% of the team positions - or rather 6 of 30.  

Somehow, I don't think you would be singing this same tune if your team was ranked 31.

So, to take you up on your bet - I propose that if FBR correctly places all 20 D1 teams (teams ranked #1 - #20 all make LH D1), I will quit posting.  If it does not, how about you quit posting?

soccer chuck wrote:

Unicorns wrote:Well the seeding committee relied on FBR to the tune of 95% this year.  They even have RASE as the #2 seed when they should be the #1 Seed.  

The point is the FBR is the gold standard.  LHGCL uses it, the parents use it, it is right a vast majority of the time so why not structure the league based upon it.   No need for a QT.

  

I think about half a dozen posters above explained exactly WHY you still need a qualifying tournament - but let me recap - guest players, player movement, the fact that FBR goes back to a time well before the current rosters were set (including May when most teams had guest players playing).

The fact that the seeding committee relied on it "95%" is only relevant as it "estimates" the position.  It has never been designed to place the exact position.  And even LH didn't solely rely on it.

The fact that it is not perfect is reflected in the 80% success rate last year in identifying the LH qualifiers.  Meaning it is remarkably close - but mis-judged 20% of the team positions - or rather 6 of 30.  

Somehow, I don't think you would be singing this same tune if your team was ranked 31.

So, to take you up on your bet - I propose that if FBR correctly places all 20 D1 teams (teams ranked #1 - #20 all make LH D1), I will quit posting.  If it does not, how about you quit posting?

Will you both quit using you other Screen Names also?

The FBR is fairly accurate but its not perfect. I think everyone, including BW, prefers it get decided on the field.

Personally I doubt all 20 make it, either the 20 top seeds or the Top 20 in the FBR, I don't think either one has been 100%. At least not since I started following. I'll go out on a limb and predict that either Lady Aztecs or Kicks will qualify, both of them are seeded outside the Top 20. There will be some team that everyone thinks will do well that will end up winning 2-1, 1-0 and then lose the last game and be sitting on the outside looking in, it's going to happen.

No system is perfect, this one just demands that you are this week.

GrandTXSoccer wrote:The FBR is fairly accurate but its not perfect. I think everyone, including BW, prefers it get decided on the field.

Personally I doubt all 20 make it, either the 20 top seeds or the Top 20 in the FBR, I don't think either one has been 100%. At least not since I started following. I'll go out on a limb and predict that either Lady Aztecs or Kicks will qualify, both of them are seeded outside the Top 20. There will be some team that everyone thinks will do well that will end up winning 2-1, 1-0 and then lose the last game and be sitting on the outside looking in, it's going to happen.

No system is perfect, this one just demands that you are this week.

Call it what it is...11-30 are all good teams. But, 3-4 are a little better and/or have potential because of their bracket. Kicks, LFS White, Texans Red and Aztecs all have a great shot at D-1.

Then you have the conundrum of whether its better to be in the bottom of D1, or the top of DIII. Both end up in D2 at U-12, but I think the survival rate for the top DIII team moving into D2 after a successful season winning most of its games is greater than the D1 team that got their butts handed to them all season long except for a few meager victories against the other teams who share the bottom few slots of D1 with them...

I don't see much of a conundrum...