FBR06G 9-29-15

FBR06G wrote:

briggsn wrote:I understand the discussion, but I can't quite get to an agreement on the methodology of the rankings.  For example.... It seems to me that the rankings are saying the following....Let's look at how these team play each other (head-to-head), but in the likely event two of them tie each other, let's just forget about how the actual game ended.  In other words, why does overtime even exist if it isn't going to be considered?  There are these things called "tie-breakers" to help place one team above another.

Also, I am struggling to understand how Solar Black and Solar Chelsea Blue rank ahead of Sting Fuego when Fuego has beaten them both in either the PLD Tourney or league play???  The point system is interesting...Solar Black is currently 10 points ahead of Sting Fuego (even though they lost to Fuego head-to-head at PLD), and Solar Black has only one more win.  10 points seems like a fairly large difference.

I just find it interesting that Solar now occupies 3 or the top 4 spots (you better watch out Sting Black), when two of their teams (Solar Red and Solar Black) lost to the two Sting teams in head to head matches?  Seems a bit biased.

Solar Black played in gold at PLD and Fuego played in Silver at PLD------they did not play each other at PLD.   In fact when I look at Fuegos record I do not see a game between Solar Black and Fuego.  

I do see your question being a valid question about Solar Blue vs Sting Fuego.  It is true Fuego beat Solar Blue 1-0 at the PLD when they both played in Silver.     In league play Solar Blue is playing in Platinum and Fuego in Gold at UAL.   One of the reasons is Strength of Schedule.   Between Sting Fuego and Solar Blue right now there is less than a 3 point difference.  As games are dropped off from Spring and more games added from Fall time will tell the true picture there.

A team that plays in the 2nd tier of tournaments and leagues complaining about their top 10 ranking. That's rich.
Fuego is ranked too high IMO. But I know it all comes down to numbers. Keep racking up those W's.

Sho'nuff wrote:

briggsn wrote:In other words, why does overtime even exist if it isn't going to be considered?  There are these things called "tie-breakers" to help place one team above another.

Thank you!  I was beginning to think I was the only one dumbfounded by this.  My soccer experience is relatively limited, but it seems to me that the stronger team usually wins in extra time, I'm talking all levels.  I noticed this in the last World Cup.

I applaud Gophers for making a decision and being consistent, but I encourage the new publishers to make their own decisions.  Goals are hard to come by and the top teams don't play each other that often.  It seems silly to exclude such good data.

If all games in league play offered OT and PKs to decide a winner then we would use that data.  But league play does not.  So to be consistent we use end of regulation time for all games in FBR.  

Gophers has repeatedly posted the reasoning behind this.  But yes if a second FBR is created and that person does things differently it will be something for everyone to compare.   When I took over FBR I decided to follow what he had set forth.   FBR07G and FBR08G are also following those standards BW set forth as far as I know.

FBR06G wrote:

Sho'nuff wrote:

briggsn wrote:In other words, why does overtime even exist if it isn't going to be considered?  There are these things called "tie-breakers" to help place one team above another.

Thank you!  I was beginning to think I was the only one dumbfounded by this.  My soccer experience is relatively limited, but it seems to me that the stronger team usually wins in extra time, I'm talking all levels.  I noticed this in the last World Cup.

I applaud Gophers for making a decision and being consistent, but I encourage the new publishers to make their own decisions.  Goals are hard to come by and the top teams don't play each other that often.  It seems silly to exclude such good data.

If all games in league play offered OT and PKs to decide a winner then we would use that data.  But league play does not.  So to be consistent we use end of regulation time for all games in FBR.  

Gophers has repeatedly posted the reasoning behind this.  But yes if a second FBR is created and that person does things differently it will be something for everyone to compare.   When I took over FBR I decided to follow what he had set forth.   FBR07G and FBR08G are also following those standards BW set forth

I doubt anyone believes PKs are telling.

Regarding OT exclusion, Gophers cited consistency which I fully agree with. I don't think he had a strong opinion one way or the other.
My strong opinion is in response to World Cup and Copa America. At the WC, I thought the stronger team won every game that was decided in extra-time. At Copa America, they go straight to PKs after regulation; there is no extra time. This results in strong teams exiting early. When I looked up the reason for this nonsense, I found the answer that I hate to hear. "That's the way it has always been done." It turns out that the decision was made in 1916, and it was never updated (improved imo).

I am far from a soccer expert, so I would love to hear an informed counter-argument.

SkeetsG06 wrote:BWGophers,

I don't know you or at least I don't think we have met.  You seem reasonable.  My questions are simply around the math not making sense.  Its not to be offensive.  So maybe you can help me understand.  Again, i am not trying to be disrespectful.  I keep trying to let it go, but I obviously can't (smile).  I am a strick equalitarian on some topics. The facts are:

1) 9-22 Revised FBR there is a 6 point gap between SR Colvin (74 pts) and Sting Black (80).
2) 9-30 FBR has SR Colvin moving 6 up pts and Sting Black down 1pt.  To my understanding, SR Colvin is in a boys league and did not play a girls team but they moved up 6 pts.  In fact, they did not play any team as their record (10-1-4) is the same as during 9-22.  My question is simply how?
3) Sting Black played Texas Spirit Gray (Jason Hollis) and won 10-0, but they lose a pt.  Again my question is simply how?
4) The end result is FBR has a team with no losses and two ties ranked below a team with one loss and four ties.  Again my question simply how?

Too often, I think people are seeking to understand and it is misconstrued as being pissy.  I think most of us on here are smart, but I just don't get it.  Maybe I am getting dumber in my old age (LAUGH OUT LOUD).  Just seeking answers....

Am I the only one that lol when they read "I am a strick equalitarian on some topics."

equalitarian
noun - a person who adheres to the doctrine of equality among all people.

but only on some topics, especially the ones that help my argument. lmao

I explained the rationale behind the policy I used for OT/PK's in FBR earlier in this thread, and have given the same explanation many times over the years.

At the end of the day, it's completely up to FBR06, FBR07, & FBR08, as to how they want to do their rankings.  I gave each of them the same input when they reached out to me about taking on the rankings for their age group (I also gave ATP the same info when he reached to me).  I told them that I would teach them how I did it, and let them know what I felt worked best for me over the years.

I also told them that I would continue to provide my input and advice any time that they asked for it, but that THEY own the rankings going forward, and they may do with them as they please.  If they wanted to deviate from something I did, that is their choice. I think, for the most part, they have stuck pretty close to what I did over the past 5 years.

Rankings existed on this forum l-o-n-g before FBR.  The whole reason 4-3-3 started FBR in the first place was because he did not like the methodology and results of rankings that other people were posting for the '01's back when they were in U9.  So if anyone has such a strong distaste for the way something is done, and can't convince the current ranking owners to change it from "the way it's always been done", then by all means, do what 4-3-3 did and take it upon yourself to create your own ranking and publish it.

bwgophers wrote:So if anyone has such a strong distaste for the way something is done, and can't convince the current ranking owners to change it from "the way it's always been done", then by all means, do what 4-3-3 did and take it upon yourself to create your own ranking and publish it.

I wouldn't say 'distaste', but I did offer to take it over when the publisher's identity was leaked.

In the off-chance that anyone cares, this study concluded that the prematch favorite won 68% in extra-time and 57% of the time in PKs.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/extra-time-isnt-a-crapshoot-in-the-knockout-round-but-penalties-are/

Sho'nuff wrote:

bwgophers wrote:So if anyone has such a strong distaste for the way something is done, and can't convince the current ranking owners to change it from "the way it's always been done", then by all means, do what 4-3-3 did and take it upon yourself to create your own ranking and publish it.

I wouldn't say 'distaste', but I did offer to take it over when the publisher's identity was leaked.  

In the off-chance that anyone cares, this study concluded that the prematch favorite won 68%  in extra-time and 57% of the time in PKs.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/extra-time-isnt-a-crapshoot-in-the-knockout-round-but-penalties-are/

SHO-nuff!

BW , let it go man! It's not your fight anymore!

Sho'nuff wrote:

I wouldn't say 'distaste', but I did offer to take it over when the publisher's identity was leaked.  

Footballrankulator.com

I believe they've dropped the price of a copy of the Software down to $9.99 these days...

PM me once you've got it and I'll send you a copy of a starter database and the default ranking config file I used for the past 5 years.

FBR06G wrote:Your team plays Selecao soon and Solar Red soon.    

So what happened to the Selecao/SB game that was scheduled for 10/24? It's no longer on either team's schedule.  
Rescheduled?

SWINGIT!! wrote:

FBR06G wrote:Your team plays Selecao soon and Solar Red soon.    

So what happened to the Selecao/SB game that was scheduled for 10/24? It's no longer on either team's schedule.  
Rescheduled?

no horse in this race, but maybe the wrong sport?

SWINGIT!! wrote:

FBR06G wrote:Your team plays Selecao soon and Solar Red soon.    

So what happened to the Selecao/SB game that was scheduled for 10/24? It's no longer on either team's schedule.  
Rescheduled?

Surely it will be rescheduled!!!!!!!

cobb wrote:

SWINGIT!! wrote:

FBR06G wrote:Your team plays Selecao soon and Solar Red soon.    

So what happened to the Selecao/SB game that was scheduled for 10/24? It's no longer on either team's schedule.  
Rescheduled?

no horse in this race, but maybe the wrong sport?

These were all spontaneous dodges. This one appears to be premeditated.
I think the sport you're looking for is Duck, Duck,...Goose!!